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Ethanol Market - Biofuels Assessment for Monday, July 27, 2009

Ethanol spot physical bid/offer settled slightly higher,

Chicago settled at 167/169 cpg

East Coast rail settled at 177/179 cpg

FOB New York Harbor barges settled at 172/175 cpg

Dallas rail settled at 168/170 cpg

West Coast rail settled at 176/179 cpg

2008 RIN trading activity was discussed at 2.50/2.75 cpg

2009 RIN trading activity was discussed at 12.25/12.75 cpg




The CME/CBOT ethanol futures contract settled firmly higher,

August settled 3.0 cents higher at 159.5 cpg with 19 trades

September settled 4.4 cents higher at 158.0 cpg with 25 trades

October settled 3.7 cents higher at 151.7 cpg with 14 trades

November settled 3.0 cents higher at 151.0 cpg with 21 trades

December settled 3.3 cents higher at 151.8 cpg with 21 trades

A total of 176 lots traded for the day


The CME/CBOT ethanol futures spread to CME/NYMEX RBOB closed at -33.97 Monday.  The spread closed at -35.09, -31.6, -30.63, -27.40, -22.94, -23.59, -20.35, -20.71, -15.66, -16.54, -18.25, -17.38, -17.18, -24.68, -11.90, -15.51, -20.42, -26.22, -24.31, -19.62, -22.93, -16.55, and -20.62 the previous consecutive days. Reminder, the 51 cpg ethanol blenders tax credit decreased down to 45 cpg effective January 1, 2009.

The NYMEX New York Harbor ethanol futures contract settled 1.0 cent higher at 167.0 cpg


The DTN National Ethanol Rack Average settled 0.13 cents lower at 187.99 cpg

Ethanol racks in Iowa settled 0.30 cents lower at 169.29 cpg

Ethanol racks in Illinois settled 0.37 cents lower at 175.17 cpg

Ethanol racks in Nebraska settled 0.04 cents lower at 172.53 cpg



The CME/CBOT ethanol corn crush hit $1.319 in early May, and cratered as low as $0.1256 in early June, and steadily improved throughout July, reaching $1.111 the last week of July, but settled through August. The crush did improve in late August, but has since settled lower. After closing at the very unhealthy level of $0.5940 on October 10th, the crush has recovered, but has generally stayed under $1.00. After trading in the low $0.50 range in late December and early January, the ethanol corn crush did improve January 5th, closing at $0.576 on sharply lower corn. The ethanol corn crush improved on Tuesday, July 14, moving up to $0.672, and up again on Wednesday, jumping to $0.909, and climbed to $1.062 on Thursday on lower corn. The ethanol corn crush closed at $1.073 on Friday, July 17, and closed even higher on Monday, reaching $1.136 on higher ethanol.  The ethanol corn crush settled slightly higher Tuesday on sharply lower corn, closing at $1.193, and slightly higher on Wednesday at $1.201, and $1.202 on Thursday, and $1.222 on Friday.  The  ethanol corn crush closed higher on Monday, July 27, settling at $1.244


The CME/CBOT September corn futures contract settled 6.0 cents higher at $3.222 per bushel

The CME/CBOT December corn futures contract settled 6.4 cents lower at $3.336 per bushel

The National Corn Cash Price Index settled higher at $3.007 per bushel

The CME/CBOT soybean futures contract settled 0.2 cents higher at $10.212 per bushel

ICE/NYBOT sugar settled 0.02 cents higher at 18.45 cents per pound

NYMEX crude oil settled $0.33 higher at $68.38 per barrel

NYMEX RBOB settled 1.88 cents higher at 193.47 cpg

NYMEX natural gas prices settled 9.1 cents lower at $3.604 per MMBtu


The corn crop condition report on Monday was  2% very poor, 6% poor, 22% fair, 52% good (54% last week, 49% last year), and 18% (18% last week, 17% last year) of the corn crop was in excellent condition.  So, 70% of the crop is currently in good to excellent condition, which compares to 66% last year.  However, this also compares to 71% the prior week, indicating that the crop deteriorated slightly.

CME corn futures increased yesterday, moving up 6 cents to $3.222 per bushel, on growing speculation that the cool weather conditions, actually, the coldest July in nearly 50 years, may have slowed corn development in the United States, which would increase the risk for freeze damage later in the year.  How strange is that?  Normally, July would bring excessive heat, and perhaps low moisture.   However, temperatures in the Corn Belt have averaged 7f to 8f below normal for virtually all of July and late June.  Low temperatures delay full maturity, which would in turn extend the crop later in the year which increases the risk for freeze damage.  What ever happened to global warming?

On Monday, crude oil only inched up, increasing 33 cents up to $68.38 per barrel, which is the highest since July 1. 2009.  Crude oil prices have increased over 53% in 2009. There was optimism in the market that the global recession may be easing, albeit slightly.  Also, the United States Commerce Department reported yesterday that United States new home sales increased the most in eight years for the month of June, which is a positive sign and an indication that the greatest housing slump since the Great Depression may be starting to stabilize.

All seven of the Valero ethanol facilities are now operating.  The biorefineries, purchased from the Verasun auction, have a combined capacity of over 750 million gallons

AAA is calling for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reject a petition that would increase the permissible content of ethanol blended in gasoline to 15 percent, or E15, from the currently allowed 10 percent, commonly known as E10.  "While AAA supports the integration of alternative fuels into the nation's fuel supply, additional data is needed on the potential impact associated with the use of E15 gasoline over time on the country's vehicle fleet," says AAA Vice President of Public Affairs Kathleen Marvaso. "Therefore, AAA is opposed to increasing the ethanol content in gasoline to 15 percent without unbiased, objective research first proving that E15 will not damage engine systems and component parts, compromise vehicle performance and fuel efficiency, or increase vehicle emissions."


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end of Daily Biofuels Assessment for Monday, July 27, 2009

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