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Additional details and analysis are covered in depth by subscription, inlcuding, breaking news, and market supplemental summaries.  Coverage includes current and historical prices, production and demand, with comparitive analysis and forecasting.  Below are examples of market coverage in the weekly Ethanol Market Weekly News and Market Report

 

 

 

 


OPEC - World Oil Outlook 2008
large file, PDF, 7mb

Securing America's Future Energy
Recommendations to the Nation to Reduce Oil Dependence

Click here for Petroleum "Quick Facts"

Subscribe to th Ethanol Market Weekly News and Market Report for Weekly Ethanol, Energy and Grain News

 

PADD: Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts


PAD District I (East Coast) is composed of the following three subdistricts:
Subdistrict A (New England): Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Subdistrict B (Central Atlantic): Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.
Subdistrict C (Lower Atlantic): Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.

PAD District II (Midwest):
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

PAD District III (Gulf Coast):
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and New Mexico, and Texas.

PAD District IV (Rocky Mountain):
Colorado Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming.

PAD District V (West Coast):
Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.

Since CME Group completed its acquisition of NYMEX Holdings, Inc. in August 2008, the Exchange has been actively integrating NYMEX business operations. We are pleased to announce that internal work has been completed and we will now provide a single Web site containing valuable information on all of our products and services. The timing for decommissioning www.nymex.com is early November 2009. As we move closer to that timeframe, we will provide any updates to the timing. Following the nymex.com decommissioning, your existing bookmarks will be redirected to the corresponding pages on cmegroup.com. Please remember to bookmark these new pages to easily find the information upon your return visit. In addition to the information listed above, please note that the legacy NYMEX settlement file located at http://www.nymex.com/md_ewd.aspx will be migrating on October 30, to the same format as the CME Group standard settlement files, which can be found at http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/settlements/. Until that time, the NYMEX and COMEX links will lead back to the existing nymex.com pages. To prepare for the impending change in settlement data display on cmegroup.com, please refer to any of the other products listed at http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/settlements/ and use them as a template for the treatment of energy and metals settlement data after October 30.

EIA Petroleum Marketing Monthly - Released July 2009 for April 2009; International crude oil prices were influenced by modest signs of recovery in world financial markets and economies. Prices for key streams experienced less volatility over the course of the month, despite brimming inventories and some reports of an increase in output from some Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) thanks to the focus on economic data trends. Prices took a step down at mid-month following the release of an International Energy Agency (IEA) report in which the organization reduced its oil demand forecast for 2009. U.S. inventory data showing crude oil stocks at long-term highs also pressured prices. Nevertheless, news suggesting some improvement in economic trends in major markets provided enough support to keep prices from experiencing more profound decreases...more

The OPEC Reference Basket continued to fall in October. The financial crisis dominated market sentiment as the economic slowdown dented petroleum demand growth. Uncertainty about bailout plans in the US while the turmoil spread worldwide signaled fears of a looming recession. Losses on the equity market, despite a move by central banks around the world to safeguard the financial system, highlighted the deteriorating economic sentiment. This was reflected in the equity markets which exhibited sharp volatility, mostly on the downside. In October, the Basket averaged $69.16/b for a drop of $27.69 or nearly 29%, the largest monthly drop ever recorded, to a level last seen in August 2007. The sharp downward trend continued in November, with the price at $49.09/b on 14 November. The forecast for the global economy in 2009 has been revised down 0.4 pp to 2.9% due to the rapidly worsening conditions in the real economy. The Euro-zone entered into technical recession in 3Q08 for the first time since the introduction of the single currency. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in 3Q08 and is expected to exhibit negative growth in the current quarter and possibly beyond. Unemployment in the US rose sharply to 6.5% with more than half a million jobs shed in the last two months alone. Central banks across the globe have moved to lower interest rates. Although money markets have eased, confidence in equity markets in October evaporated and share prices fell sharply. As spillover effects to emerging markets become stronger and commodity prices continue to fall, more countries are being affected. Attention is now turning to the need for fiscal stimulus measures to lessen the depth and reduce the duration of the economic turndown. Coordinated measures to address the crisis were considered in the Washington G-20 Summit. Following downward revisions, US growth in 2009 is now forecast at 0.3%, Euro-zone growth at 0.2% and Japanese growth is expected to turn negative...click here for the full PDF repoprt OPEC - November Oil Market Report

EIA - Monthly Energy Review, July 2008 (released September 30, 2008)

EIA Short Term Energy Forecast - Global oil markets will likely remain tight through the forecast period.  EIA projects that world oil demand will grow much faster than oil supply outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), leaving OPEC and inventories to offset the resultant upward pressure on prices.  However, at last week’s meeting in Abu Dhabi, OPEC decided to maintain its existing production quotas, noting that, in its view, the global oil market continued to be well supplied.  Additional factors contributing to expectations that prices will remain high and volatile through 2008 include ongoing geopolitical risks, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventory tightness, and worldwide refining bottlenecks...more

 

01.23.07 - The U. S. House of Representatives voted last week to shift money from oil and gas industry coffers into alternative-energy programs, but it remains unclear how the U.S. Senate will deal with the issue.
H.R. 6, the energy bill, marked the completion of the Democratic House leadership’s “first 100 hours” agenda for the new Congress.  H.R. 6 would change provisions in three laws, including the 2005 energy overhaul (Public Law 109-58) by rolling back approximately $14 billion in tax breaks and other subsidies for oil and gas companies and depositing that money into a fund to promote alternatives to fossil fuels.  The sum includes about $4.4 billion in royalties that Democrats say would be recovered because of changes to flawed offshore drilling leases issued in 1998 and 1999. The Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Democrat Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, has said he supports efforts to fix flawed drilling leases, but he has stopped short of endorsing the entire House bill.  Senator Bingaman has said he wants to rework the House bill to “avoid legal pitfalls” and to address funding for federal energy programs. The House bill would require oil companies holding the flawed leases to renegotiate the deals or pay a “conservation fee” as compensation before they could big on more drilling leases.  The House passed a bill last year that contained similar language, but it never cleared the Senate. H.R. 6 would also eliminate a tax credit for oil and gas companies that was extended to those industries in 2004 (Public Law 108-357), raising $7.6 billion over 10 years.  Another provision would raise more than $104 million over 10 years by altering the rate at which some exploration expenses can be deducted by major oil companies.  Under the 2006 tax reconciliation package (Public Law 109-222), companies have five years to write off expenses.  The House bill would lengthen it to seven years.
Senate Democrats have said they want to assemble their own energy package by the spring.  The House bill normally would be referred to the Senate Finance Committee because of its tax provisions, but Senator Bingaman plans to request it be placed directly on the Senate calendar, thus avoiding putting the issue in the jurisdiction of the Finance panel and making it easier for Bingaman’s committee to take the lead on the issue.

01.08.07 - NPRA Statement on Biofuels Security Act - Washington, D.C., January 5, 2007 – NPRA, the National Petrochemical & Refiners Association, released the following statement on “The Biofuels Security Act of 2007,” which would increase the renewable fuels standard to 30 billion gallons in 2020 and 60 billion gallons in 2030. The bill would also require that the major oil companies carry E-85 at half of their service stations by 2017.

NPRA Executive Vice President Charles T. Drevna said: “On the first day of the new Congress, Senator Harkin and others have already introduced legislation to expand ethanol use in the United States. While NPRA shares the enthusiasm of these leaders for measures to enhance the energy independence of our country, we cannot support this legislation.

“As NPRA has consistently stated, energy policy based on mandates is no recipe for success. Ethanol from corn is not economic or energy efficient. It has lower energy content than gasoline, has ozone emission problems, especially in warmer weather, and poses transportation and logistical issues. Already, recent reports have indicated that projected ethanol demand is likely to create unacceptable food price increases for those in society least able to afford it: the poor. For more information, see the recent report of the Earth Policy Institute (January 4, 2007) at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2007/Update63.htm.

“ Ethanol is not without its strong points, of course. Besides extending the fuel supply, ethanol increases octane, has dilution benefits that help meet RFG specifications, and limits CO emissions. Clearly, U.S. refiners will continue to rely on ethanol as a vital gasoline blendstock. But while NPRA members are among the largest users of ethanol, we believe allowing the market to operate is the best way to address consumer needs at reasonable prices.

“ Currently, about 700 service stations – mostly in the Midwest – provide E-85. This volume accounts for less than one percent of the total ethanol volume used in the nation’s fuel supply. That’s less than one percent of a product that altogether makes up only four percent of the total gasoline supply. Policymakers should avoid touting E-85 as a comprehensive solution to imported crude oil. In addition, no infrastructure has been built to store, transport and/or sell E-85, or that few studies of the impact of E-85 have been conducted. This legislation itself acknowledges the inadequate numbers of appropriate pumps and vehicles that, when coupled with problems in distributing ethanol, demonstrate that ethanol mandates can easily outstrip the ability of our current infrastructure to deliver.

“ Even with these drawbacks, we are not opposed to the use of ethanol, biodiesel, E-85, or other alternatives based upon market pricing. We believe that alternative fuels will be a growing part of the nation’s energy supplies as their economic viability improves and technological progress continues. We do continue to remain opposed to mandates and subsidies. And we believe that renewable fuels are not the answer to America’s supply problems nor can they deliver on the promise of energy independence. Before collectively abandoning hydrocarbons and stocking up on carbohydrates for energy, all stakeholders should fully understand the proper role of renewables as part of the nation’s transportation fuel mix.”

NPRA members include more than 450 companies, including virtually all US refiners and petrochemical manufacturers. Our members supply consumers with a wide variety of products and services used daily in their homes and businesses. These products include gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants and the chemicals that serve as "building blocks" in making everything from plastics to clothing to medicine to computers. Contact Sharon Dey 202.457.0480 or Nicole Friedman 202.457.048

 

Energy Information Administration - Short Term Energy Forecast
December 2006

Production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that began in November, combined with the recent erosion in surplus U.S. product inventories and the expected increase in petroleum demand during the winter heating season drove spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices above $60 per barrel in the last week of November.  OPEC oil production is expected to be reduced by about 0.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in November and December. WTI crude oil prices are projected to average about $66 per barrel in 2006 and $65 per barrel in 2007 WTI crude price.
 
Due to projected colder weather for the first quarter 2007 compared with the same period in 2006, natural gas spot prices are expected to average $8.58 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in the first quarter of 2007, about $0.65 per mcf higher than in the first quarter of 2006.  THe Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are projected to average $7.06 per mcf in 2006 and increase to an average of $7.87 per mcf in 2007.   

Average household heating fuel expenditures are projected to be $938 this winter compared to $948 last winter (this estimate is moderately higher than the $928 projected in last month’s forecast), driven by slightly higher residential price projections.

Global Petroleum Markets - In response to rising oil inventories and declining world oil prices, OPEC announced that it would cut its oil production from actual output levels  (not just from OPEC production quota levels, as in previous cuts) by 1.2 million bbl/d effective November 1, 2006.  The evidence to date indicates that much, but not the entire amount, of this cut was made as promised.  EIA has left unchanged its earlier projections that OPEC crude oil production would be lowered by almost 0.8 million bbl/d in November and December as a result of the cuts.  However, EIA has revised its production estimates to show that Saudi Arabia began making its cuts before the November target.  OPEC is also considering additional production cuts.  Due to the reduction in OPEC oil production, along with growing petroleum demand during the winter heating season and expected drawdown of surplus inventories, the average monthly price of WTI crude oil is projected to rise from about $59 per barrel in November to the mid-$60’s per barrel over the winter.

Commercial Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) oil inventories increased during the first half of 2006 as concerns about potential supply problems rose.  Inventories remained high when production disruptions during the 2006 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico never materialized.  The OPEC production cuts are expected to reduce world oil inventories sharply during the fourth quarter of 2006.  Days-of-supply of OECD inventories are projected to decline from close to the top of the normal range during the third quarter of 2006 to near the bottom of the normal range by the end of 2007.

EIA has left unchanged its projection that world oil demand will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2007.  U.S. petroleum consumption is expected to rise by 0.3 million bbl/d in 2007, following relatively flat consumption in 2006.  The United States and China are projected to account for over half of the world growth in oil consumption in 2007.  Demand growth is also projected to be strong in the Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries, which are benefiting from the currently high oil revenues.

New supplies from non-OPEC countries will partially meet anticipated demand growth.  The net annual growth in non-OPEC oil production for 2006 is projected to total around 0.5 million bbl/d.  Although production will be limited at first, Russia’s andthe United Kingdom’s Buzzard field should begin adding new supply by the end of December 2006.  Non-OPEC production is expected to rise by 1.0 million bbl/d in 2007, as new projects in the Caspian Region, Africa, and Brazil add more than 0.8 million bbl/d of production.
 
The OPEC oil production cuts provide only a temporary increase in surplus world crude oil production capacity.  The projected increase in world oil consumption in 2007, which exceeds the expected growth in non-OPEC production, increases the demand for OPEC oil from 2006 levels.  Surplus world crude oil production capacity should increase only slightly in 2007.  However, OPEC’s production cuts mean that, for the first time in months, surplus production capacity is no longer restricted to just Saudi Arabia.

US Petroleum Markets - Total United Stae petroleum products consumption in 2006 is projected to decline 0.6 percent from 2005 consumption.  Motor gasoline consumption, however, is expected to increase by 1 percent.  Despite the dampening effects of a mild winter on heating oil demand earlier this year, total distillate demand, driven by strong diesel consumption, is projected to rise 2.1 percent.  Some other petroleum products, however, are projected to decline.  Jet fuel demand is expected to fall by 2.6 percent because of lower fuel demand for air transportation.   Residual fuel oil demand, under pressure from low natural gas prices and a mild winter earlier in the year, is projected to shrink by 25 percent. 
 
In contrast, 2007 demand for all the major petroleum products is expected to increase.   Motor gasoline consumption, buoyed by an overall decline in retail prices and continued economic growth, is expected to increase 1.1 percent.  A recovery in air transportation is expected to boost jet fuel demand by 1.9 percent.  Projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) call for a fourth quarter 2006 that is 3 percent warmer than normal, but slightly colder than last year.  NOAA’s expectations for the first quarter 2007 remain nearly 9 percent colder than one year ago.  Assuming that NOAA’s weather projections hold for the remainder of the winter, distillate consumption is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2007.  Residual fuel oil demand is also expected to increase by 6.6 percent from the depressed levels of 2006.

Domestic oil production in 2006 is projected to average 5.2 million bbl/d, virtually unchanged from 2005 when hurricane activity affected Gulf of Mexico output in the second half of the year.  In 2007, total output is projected to increase by 4.1 percent.  Contributing to that increase is the startup of new deepwater production and a recovery of Alaskan output brought about by the repair of North Slope pipelines that limited production during 2006.
Distillate inventories are projected to be adequate during the current heating season.   Beginning-of-season (September 30, 2006) primary stocks were 149 million barrels, up almost 22 million barrels from last year and the previous 5-year-average.  Because of the record 10 million barrel drawdown in October, however, and an additional 7 million barrel draw in November, end-of-season (March 31, 2007) distillate inventories are projected to be 113 million barrels, 7 million barrels less than they were at the end of March 2006.  That level is still in the middle of the normal inventory range. 
 
At the start of the next driving season on April 1, 2007, total motor gasoline stocks are projected to be 209 million barrels, the same as they were at the start of the 2006 driving season and close to the top of the normal range.  However, in terms of days-of-supply, these stocks are close to the lower end of the range, suggesting tightness in gasoline markets for the remainder of this winter season and into next year’s driving season.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets - Recent warmer-than-normal weather in November has kept pressure off the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $7.63 per mcf for the month.  Heating degree-days in November were down 36 percent from normal in the East North Central region and 27 percent below normal in both the New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions.   While a return to normal weather could increase pressure on the Henry Hub spot price, high levels of natural gas in storage and the forecast of slightly warmer-than-normal weather are expected to keep natural gas spot prices below $9 per mcf on average through the heating season.  A January monthly peak of roughly $8.71 per mcf is projected for the monthly average Henry Hub spot price.  The Henry Hub price is expected to average $7.06 per mcf in 2006 and $7.87 per mcf in 2007.

As a result of warmer-than-normal weather in the early part of 2006, total natural gas consumption is projected to decline by 0.5 percent for the year.  With a return to normal weather, consumption is expected to recover in 2007 and grow by 1.5 percent.  Residential and commercial sector consumption is expected to grow by 6.9 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, in 2007.  Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector, which dropped 1.0 percent in 2006, is expected to reach its highest level since 2004 with a 1.8-percent rise in demand in 2007.  Due to expectations of more moderate summer temperatures in 2007 compared to 2006, power sector consumption is projected to decrease by 3.6 percent in 2007. 

Domestic dry natural gas production is expected to increase by about 2.3 percent in 2006, but drop slightly by 0.7 percent in 2007.  High storage levels and the reduction of residential and commercial sector demand by 7.3 and 3.5 percent, respectively, resulted in a 5.0-percent decline in net natural gas imports in 2006.  EIA expects net imports to remain basically unchanged in 2007, with a sizeable increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports offsetting a decline in pipeline shipments from Canada.  Despite strong projections of LNG supply in 2007, imports will continue to be affected by price competition in the global market. 

As of December 1, working gas in storage was 3,406 billion cubic feet (bcf), a level 232 bcf above the year-ago level and 282 bcf above the 5-year average for that date.  Working gas inventories are projected to end the winter (March 31, 2007) at 1,430 bcf, which is 260 bcf below the level of 1,690 bcf reached at the end of March 2006, but still above the average of the last 5 years.

Electricity - Residential electricity demand in 2006 is estimated to have increased by 0.3 percent over 2005 demand.  Cooling degree-days in 2007 are assumed to be about 10 percent lower than 2006, keeping residential electricity demand growth low at a rate of 0.6 percent.  Commercial electricity consumption follows a similar pattern with demand expected to grow 2.2 percent for 2006 and a more modest 1.1 percent in 2007.
The proportion of electric generation provided by natural gas grew somewhat in 2006 as a result of higher peak electricity demand during the summer months and comparatively low natural gas prices.  This proportion is expected to decline in 2007 in response to lower temperatures and higher natural gas fuel costs. 

Heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during 2006 resulted in hydroelectric generation displacing some coal generation to meet baseload electricity demand, but hydroelectric generation for 2007 is projected to return to more normal levels.

Coal - Total U.S. coal consumption is expected to remain flat in 2006 and increase by 1.9 percent in 2007.  Coal consumption in the electric power sector is expected to decrease by 0.6 percent in 2006, but grow by 2.1 percent in 2007.  Total U.S. coal production is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2006, but declining exports, increasing imports and ample stockpiles (held by both consumers and producers) is expected to lead to a decline in coal production in 2007.  This would be the first decline in domestic coal production since 2003.  Regionally, production is expected to decline by about 4 percent in the Appalachian and Interior regions, while Western production grows by 0.9 percent. 

 

 

Energy Information Adminstration
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending December 8, 2006

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending December 8, down 169,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 89.1 percent of their operable capacity last week. However, gasoline production increased last week compared to the previous week, averaging nearly 9.3 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production declined, averaging over 4.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.6 million barrels per day last week, down 701,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged over 10.0 million barrels per day, 132,000 barrels less than averaged over the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
components) last week averaged 967,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 465,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 4.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. However, at 335.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched lower by 0.1 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories declined by 0.5 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. A decline in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories more than compensated for a slight rise in diesel fuel inventories (a combination of ultra-low-sulfur and low-sulfur). Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 21.0 million barrels per day, or 0.7 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over 9.3 million barrels per day, or 1.9 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 3.0 percent above the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is down 6.5 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year

06.28.06 - The United States crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 16.0 million bpd last week, which is up 138,000 bpd from the previous week. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week, up slightly from the previous week average of 92.7%. 
The United States commercial crude oil inventories, not including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 1.4 million barrels last week. The inventory of 347.1 million barrels is the highest level since the week ending May 29, 1998, which is above the average range for this time of year
Gasoline production also increased last week, coming in at 9.35 million bpd. Total motor gasoline imports, which includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blendstocks last week averaged nearly 1.1 million bpd, and total motor gasoline inventories moved slightly higher, increasing 0.3 million barrels last week, and are now in the middle of the average range for this time of the year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million bpd, or 0.9% above the same period last year. 
Meanwhile, crude closed up $0.93 Monday, to $71.80 per barrel, fueled by strong gasoline demand and the concern over gasoline inventories later in the summer, and continued concern over Iranian nuclear ambitions. Iran is the worlds fourth largest crude oil producer. After hours trading Monday night brought the price above $72.00 per barrel, which continued into the day Tuesday. The record crude oil near month contract price of $75.35 was traded back in April 2006. As previously discussed, crude oil inventories are not a problem. The current gasoline inventory of 213.4 million barrels is 1.2% less than the 213.1 million barrels for the same period last year. High gasoline prices do not seem to be deterring demand, at least prices under a national average of $3.00 per gallon.
On Monday, the Unleaded Regular spread to the CBOT ethanol contract is 151 cpg and the RBOB Gasoline contract spread to the CBOT Ethanol contract is 134 cpg. Natural gas spot prices pushed up across the country last week, with a strong pull from cooling demand, as the heat was above average in many sections of the country. The Henry Hub spot price rose 27 cents, or about 5%, to $6.09 per MMBtu by Wednesday, and stayed in that same range Thursday and Friday. The NYMEX natural gas contract was n the move as well, trading up $0.60 to $0.70 MMBtu, and closing at $7.20 MMBtu last Friday.
Natural gas in storage last week was 2,397 Bcf, which is 37.9% above the five year average for this time of the year. The net injection last week of 77 Bcf is 20% less than the five average of 97 Bcf and 1% less than last year’s injection of 78 Bcf. Even with the less than average injection rate, natural gas inventory is still at very high levels. The EIA started keeping weekly data in 1994, and inventory levels never reached the current level of 2,397 Bcf this early in the injection season. Last year, stocks did not reach 2,397 Bcf until late July, and in 2000, it took until late September to reach this level. In fact, natural gas inventory levels are 659 Bcf higher than the five year average. Although strong demand decreased injection levels last week, this will not impact the current strong inventory position. The market still has the potential to fall dramatically if/when inventory capacity is reached later this summer, forcing the product to go straight to market, not to inventory.

04.13.06 - The EIA Natural Gas Update - The 2005-2006 heating season (November 1-March 31) was marked by several different record-setting and near record-setting events. The average spot price at the Henry Hub exceeded levels of the past two heating seasons by 45 and 68 percent, respectively, which is more than $2.86 per MMBtu above the level of the past two seasons. Factors contributing to the recent relatively high prices include production disruptions resulting from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, limited growth in net imports with a year-on-year decline in LNG imports, high petroleum prices, and larger stocks of gas-burning equipment in households and for electric power generation. Hurricane-related production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico led to large increases in the Henry Hub spot price. Prior to the heating season (during September and October 2005), spot prices reached as high as $15.27 per MMBtu. The price averaged $10.31 per MMBtu in November 2005 and then once again peaked in mid-December at $15.40 per MMBtu, which is second to the record of $18.85 on February 25, 2003. Thereafter, the Henry Hub spot price generally declined until mid-March when it bottomed out and since then has remained fairly stable. The decrease in the Henry Hub spot price undoubtedly resulted from warmer-than-normal weather during the 2005-2006 heating season and continuing production recovery after the hurricanes. On the whole, temperatures during the 2005-2006 heating season were warmer than normal and warmer than last year for the same 5-month period, as measured by gas-customer-weighted heating-degree days (HDDs) published by the National Weather Service. Four of the five heating-season months were warmer than normal. Temperatures in January 2006 were the highest on record, and overall, none of the Lower 48 States had below average temperatures, while 15 States had record high temperatures for the month. December 2005 was the only month in the 2005-2006 heating season that recorded colder-than-normal temperatures. Similarly, December 2005 and February 2006 were the only 2 months that had colder temperatures than those of the previous year, exceeding last winter's HDDs by 7.8 and 8.0 percent, respectively. Overall, temperatures were 8.6 percent warmer than normal for the heating season.

03.24.06 - United States refinery inputs averaged 14.4 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, up 313,000 bpd from the previous week. Refineries operated at 85.7% of effective capacity, a slight increase from the prior week,
Gasoline production increased, averaging 8.4 million bpd. Total gasoline imports, which includes both finished gasoline and blending components, averaged nearly 1.3 million bpd. Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels, but are still in the upper end of the average range for this time of the year.
Gasoline imports have averaged over 1.0 million bpd for the past six weeks in a row, for the second longest streak in history. The longest streak was last year immediately after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. During the past four weeks, gasoline imports are over 30% higher than the same period last year. With prices expected to increase this summer, we would expect "buyers" to build inventory, keeping the pressure on imports.
Meanwhile, during the prior four weeks, motor gasoline demand averaged over 9.0 million bpd, which is 2% above the same period last year.
Refineries should be preparing for the summer driving season. However, refineries only operated at 85.7% of operable capacity last week, and just recently operated at a five month low. The recent outages in the Caribbean will be felt later this spring.  Combine the geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, Nigeria, and other countries, with ultra low sulphur diesel, ethanol transition, strong demand, and questions about production and supply, and the vagaries between the HU and the RBOB gasoline contracts, you can understand why everyone is forecasting higher prices this summer. This does not even include the potential impact of another strong hurricane season. Although the Iranian nuclear issue has not been at the forefront recently, it should be noted that after 3 years of failed negotiations and inspections, the International Atomic Energy Agency referred the matter to the Security Council on March 8, 2006. Meanwhile, weather forecasts for the Midwest and East Coast are for below average temperatures for the rest of March, which will support demand for heating oil for the rest of the month. Retail gasoline price increased 3 cpg two weeks ago, and then jumped a near record 14 cpg last week.

03.2706 - Ultra Low Suphur Diesel Legislation, which will become effective June 1, 2006, was implemented to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter from heavy duty engines and vehicles that use diesel fuel. The new rule requires refiners and importers to produce highway diesel meeting a 15 parts per million (ppm) maximum requirement, starting June 1, 2006; however, pipelines are expected to require refiners to provide diesel fuel with an even lower sulfur content, somewhat below 10 ppm, in order to compensate for contamination from higher sulfur products in the system, and to provide a tolerance for testing. Diesel meeting the new specification will be required at terminals by July 15, 2006, and at retail stations and wholesalers by September 1, 2006. Under a "temporary compliance option" (phase-in), up to 20 percent of highway diesel fuel produced may continue to meet the current 500 ppm sulfur limit through May 2010; the remaining 80 percent of the highway diesel fuel produced must meet the new 15 ppm maximum.
You think ethanol has logistical hurdles. The problems with ethanol are going a fraction of the hurdles facing diesel fuel. The transition from refinery, through pipelines, terminal tanks and retails tanks is going difficult and inconsistent.
Although highway-grade diesel is the second most consumed petroleum product, gasoline is the most important product by far. In 1999 highway diesel accounted for 12 percent of total petroleum consumption and gasoline 43 percent. Consumption of highway-grade diesel (500 ppm) accounted for 68 percent of the distillate fuel market in 1999, although 9 percent went to non-road (rail, farming, industry) and home heating uses. Higher sulfur distillate (more than 500 ppm sulfur), used exclusively for non-road and home heating needs, accounted for the other 32 percent of the distillate market.
Ethanol hurdles include the logistical challenges of getting fuel ethanol from point "A" to point "B", the massive MTBE retreat, the new gasoline formulation requirements and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) introduction of a new gasoline contract last October, called the RBOB (reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending), which will eventually replace the benchmark gasoline contract, known as HU, which includes MTBE. In the interim, it is very difficult to manage investment and risk management with two contracts. The RBOB contract is still breaking into the system. Two weeks ago, the MTBE-free RBOB contract replaced the HU contract in the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, but the larger Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) still uses the HU contract.
So, ethanol will be faced with both supply and demand issues this summer, logistical challenges, conversion from the HU to the RBOB futures contract, the massive MTBE retreat, and difficulties with the capabilities with imports to meet specification requirements. Meanwhile, the industry is still catching up with refinery issues caused by the Hurricane's Katrina and Rita. Even so, we believe the ultra low diesel conversion will be more difficult than the ethanol transition in gasoline.

03.24.06 - United States refinery inputs averaged 14.4 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, up 313,000 bpd from the previous week. Refineries operated at 85.7% of effective capacity, a slight increase from the prior week,
Gasoline production increased, averaging 8.4 million bpd. Total gasoline imports, which includes both finished gasoline and blending components, averaged nearly 1.3 million bpd. Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels, but are still in the upper end of the average range for this time of the year.
Gasoline imports have averaged over 1.0 million bpd for the past six weeks in a row, for the second longest streak in history. The longest streak was last year immediately after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. During the past four weeks, gasoline imports are over 30% higher than the same period last year. With prices expected to increase this summer, we would expect "buyers" to build inventory, keeping the pressure on imports.
Meanwhile, during the prior four weeks, motor gasoline demand averaged over 9.0 million bpd, which is 2% above the same period last year.
Refineries should be preparing for the summer driving season. However, refineries only operated at 85.7% of operable capacity last week, and just recently operated at a five month low. The recent outages in the Caribbean will be felt later this spring. 
Combine the geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, Nigeria, and other countries, with ultra low sulphur diesel, ethanol transition, strong demand, and questions about production and supply, and the vagaries between the HU and the RBOB gasoline contracts, you can understand why everyone is forecasting higher prices this summer. This does not even include the potential impact of another strong hurricane season.
Although the Iranian nuclear issue has not been at the forefront recently, it should be noted that after 3 years of failed negotiations and inspections, the International Atomic Energy Agency referred the matter to the Security Council on March 8, 2006. Meanwhile, weather forecasts for the Midwest and East Coast are for below average temperatures for the rest of March, which will support demand for heating oil for the rest of the month.
Retail gasoline price increased

3 cpg two weeks ago, and then jumped a near record 14 cpg last week.

03.2706 - Ultra Low Suphur Diesel Legislation, which will become effective June 1, 2006, was implemented to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter from heavy duty engines and vehicles that use diesel fuel. The new rule requires refiners and importers to produce highway diesel meeting a 15 parts per million (ppm) maximum requirement, starting June 1, 2006; however, pipelines are expected to require refiners to provide diesel fuel with an even lower sulfur content, somewhat below 10 ppm, in order to compensate for contamination from higher sulfur products in the system, and to provide a tolerance for testing. Diesel meeting the new specification will be required at terminals by July 15, 2006, and at retail stations and wholesalers by September 1, 2006. Under a "temporary compliance option" (phase-in), up to 20 percent of highway diesel fuel produced may continue to meet the current 500 ppm sulfur limit through May 2010; the remaining 80 percent of the highway diesel fuel produced must meet the new 15 ppm maximum.
You think ethanol has logistical hurdles. The problems with ethanol are going a fraction of the hurdles facing diesel fuel. The transition from refinery, through pipelines, terminal tanks and retails tanks is going difficult and inconsistent.
Although highway-grade diesel is the second most consumed petroleum product, gasoline is the most important product by far. In 1999 highway diesel accounted for 12 percent of total petroleum consumption and gasoline 43 percent. Consumption of highway-grade diesel (500 ppm) accounted for 68 percent of the distillate fuel market in 1999, although 9 percent went to non-road (rail, farming, industry) and home heating uses. Higher sulfur distillate (more than 500 ppm sulfur), used exclusively for non-road and home heating needs, accounted for the other 32 percent of the distillate market.
Ethanol hurdles include the logistical challenges of getting fuel ethanol from point "A" to point "B", the massive MTBE retreat, the new gasoline formulation requirements and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) introduction of a new gasoline contract last October, called the RBOB (reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending), which will eventually replace the benchmark gasoline contract, known as HU, which includes MTBE. In the interim, it is very difficult to manage investment and risk management with two contracts. The RBOB contract is still breaking into the system. Two weeks ago, the MTBE-free RBOB contract replaced the HU contract in the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, but the larger Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) still uses the HU contract.
So, ethanol will be faced with both supply and demand issues this summer, logistical challenges, conversion from the HU to the RBOB futures contract, the massive MTBE retreat, and difficulties with the capabilities with imports to meet specification requirements. Meanwhile, the industry is still catching up with refinery issues caused by the Hurricane's Katrina and Rita. Even so, we believe the ultra low diesel conversion will be more difficult than the ethanol transition in gasoline.

 

03.2706 - Ultra Low Suphur Diesel  Legislation, which will become effective June 1, 2006, was implemented to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter from heavy duty engines and vehicles that use diesel fuel. The new rule requires refiners and importers to produce highway diesel meeting a 15 parts per million (ppm) maximum requirement, starting June 1, 2006; however, pipelines are expected to require refiners to provide diesel fuel with an even lower sulfur content, somewhat below 10 ppm, in order to compensate for contamination from higher sulfur products in the system, and to provide a tolerance for testing. Diesel meeting the new specification will be required at terminals by July 15, 2006, and at retail stations and wholesalers by September 1, 2006. Under a "temporary compliance option" (phase-in), up to 20 percent of highway diesel fuel produced may continue to meet the current 500 ppm sulfur limit through May 2010; the remaining 80 percent of the highway diesel fuel produced must meet the new 15 ppm maximum.
     You think ethanol has logistical hurdles.  The problems with ethanol are going a fraction of the hurdles facing diesel fuel.  The transition from refinery, through pipelines, terminal tanks and retails tanks is going difficult and inconsistent.
     Although highway-grade diesel is the second most consumed petroleum product, gasoline is the most important product by far. In 1999 highway diesel accounted for 12 percent of total petroleum consumption and gasoline 43 percent.  Consumption of highway-grade diesel (500 ppm) accounted for 68 percent of the distillate fuel market in 1999, although 9 percent went to non-road (rail, farming, industry) and home heating uses.  Higher sulfur distillate (more than 500 ppm sulfur), used exclusively for non-road and home heating needs, accounted for the other 32 percent of the distillate market.
     Ethanol hurdles include the logistical challenges of getting fuel ethanol from point "A" to point "B", the massive MTBE retreat, the new gasoline formulation requirements and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) introduction of a new gasoline contract last October, called the RBOB (reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending), which will eventually replace the benchmark gasoline contract, known as HU, which includes MTBE.  In the interim, it is very difficult to manage investment and risk management with two contracts.  The RBOB contract is still breaking into the system. Two weeks ago, the MTBE-free RBOB contract replaced the HU contract in the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, but the larger Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) still uses the HU contract.
     So, ethanol will be faced with both supply and demand issues this summer, logistical challenges, conversion from the HU to the RBOB futures contract, the massive MTBE retreat, and difficulties with the capabilities with imports to meet specification requirements.  Meanwhile, the industry is still catching up with refinery issues caused by the Hurricane's Katrina and Rita.  Even so, we believe the ultra low diesel conversion will be more difficult than the ethanol transition in gasoline.

 

 

03.25.06 -  Spot prices increased last week,  breaking away from the long downward trend that started in December, fueled by lower than average temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast.   Prices increased slightly, but still up, with increases  between 34 and 72 cents per MMBtu, with the biggest increase seen on the East Coast, where prices increased as much as 15% since the prior week.
     Meanwhile, the NYMEX futures contract for April delivery at the Henry Hub increased to $7.143 per MMBtu, which is an increase of about 50 cents per MMBtu since last Wednesday, and then closed down on Monday, March 20, closing at 6.835 MMBtu.  Futures prices are still over $10 MMBtu in the winter next year.
     Working gas in storage last week was 1,832 Bcf, which is 688 Bcf or 60.1 percent, above the 5-year average.  The net withdrawal was 55 Bcf for the week, which is 31 percent less than the 5 year average withdrawal of 79 Bcf and about 46 percent lower than last year's withdrawal of 101 Bcf.
     The West region recorded an above-average withdrawal, consistent with the colder than normal temperatures that prevailed in the Pacific Census Division during the report week.
     Although prices are down, futures numbers for the summer are still above average, and the December 2006 through March 2007 prices are all above $10 MMBtu, which is very high.

 

9.20.05 - Crude and especially gasoline markets subsided last week.  Retail gasoline prices, which jumped over 45 cpg in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, softened by 11 cpg for the week ending September 16, 2005, as the gasoline supply chain improves.  Although there has been significant improvement, the system is far from normal and much more work and time will be required before the system is back and running up to 100% of efficiency.  This includes production, distribution, imports and pipelines.  Over 5% of the United States refinery capacity is expected to be shut down for several more months.
     Gasoline production increased by more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), up to 8.5 million bpd, and gasoline imports increased 236,000 bpd, up to 1.1 million bpd.  With high market prices, and the offerings from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the International Energy Agency, gasoline production will continue to be maximized, and imports will continue to increase.   The Department of Energy just approved bids for the sale of 11.0 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR, with sales to Astra, BP, Marathon Oil, Shell and Vitol SA.  This is in addition to the 12.6 million barrels previously approved as loans, for a total of 23.6 million barrels.
     Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved from $63.12 on Monday, up to $63.35, $65.10 and $64.78, before backing off to $63.01 on Friday.  New York Harbor regular gasoline followed a similar path, starting off at 198.4 cpg on Monday, moving on to 195.7, 200.5, 195.4, before making a strong retreat on Friday to 182.1 cpg.
     Of course, things change.  We typically report Monday through Friday numbers.  At press time, the markets for Monday had just closed, and NYMEX crude closed up $4.39, to $67.39, per barrel, based on Hurricane Rita fears, and the potential to make a more northeasterly path after entering the US Gulf.  NYMEX unleaded gas closed  up over 25 cpg, closing over 204 cpg.  Hurricane Rita is gaining strength, and could be a category "2" by the time it hits the Florida Keys, and the further  potential to reach category "4" exists.

09.14.05 - SHORT TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
              Energy Information Administration (EIA)
     Hurricane Katrina shapes the latest government short term energy outlook.  The United States Gulf region is a major energy producing region.
    The Gulf region has significant offshore oil and natural gas production, refining capacity, and has many significant petrochemical facilities.
     Immediately after the storm, Katrina reduced oil supplies by 1.4 million barrels per day, 8.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, as well as 1.9 million bpd of refining capacity.
     Due to the system disruption with electricity, barges, railcars, trucks, and just people in general, many other facilities were forced to shut down, or operate at reduced rates.
     Hurricane Katrina induced a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), requested International Energy Administration (EIA) members to release an additional 2 million bpd of crude oil, initiated a waiver of the Jones Act to help with ocean shipments , and authorized a nationwide waiver of the summer gasoline requirements and low sulfur diesel fuel.
     Based on the impact of Hurricane Katrina , the EIA has three recovery cases, Fast, Medium and Slow recovery.  The August West Texas Intermediate crude oil price averaged $65 per barrel.     
     The September average is expected to be $67 under the Fast recovery case, $70 under Medium and $72 under the Slow recovery case.  The Q3 2005 average is about $20 per barrel higher than the same period last year, and $5 higher than the previous outlook.  Quarterly prices in all three cases is expected to remain above $62 per barrel for the balance of 2005 and all of 2006.
     Average retail gasoline prices surged immediately after Katrina struck, moving up over 46 cpg, to 307  cpg just last week.  Prices are expected to stay near 300 cpg in the Medium recovery case.  The 2005 Q3 average for retail regular gasoline is now expected be 257 cpg, which is 68 cpg above the same period last year.  The Medium recovery case projects 2005 Q4 retail gasoline prices to recover down to 258 cpg.  The average for the year 2005, in the medium recover case, is expected to be 232 cpg. 
     The Henry Hub natural gas spot prices is expected average $8.82 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2005 and $8.42 per mcf in 2006, in the Medium recover case.  Natural gas production is still a big question, and it will be some time before a final impact analysis is fully understood.  Depending on the rate of bringing production back on stream, the average price across the country is forecasted to be between $11 and $13 per mcf. 
     This projection has pushed the 2005 annual projection to $8.75 to $9.14 per mcf for the year.  Overall, the natural gas market is expected to remain quite tight through the winter.  Current futures prices are trading in the low $11 to the low $12 per mcf range.  Although current natural gas storage remains above the five year average, Katrina has impacted peak storage targets, which will reduce inventory going into winter, further stressing an already tight market.  

09.12.05 - Natural Gas Update 

    United States cash and futures drooped sharply last week, with some shut-in United Gulf coming back on stream, and with mild temperatures in the lower 48 states.  The Henry Hub cash price dropped $1.65MMBtu (13%), down to $11.05MMBtu for the week ending September 7th.  NYMEX futures were off as well, although not as much.

     After a dramatic surge in prices, spot prices dropped across the country last week, with reductions over $5.00 in some locations.  Location prices last Friday, September 9th, were $11.03 at the Henry Hub, $10.73 at Chicago Citygate, $11.48 at New York Citygate and $8.86MMBtu at the California border.

     Although, shut-in natural gas production in the United States Gulf is still at 4.0 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, which is 40% of the daily offshore production capacity.  Immediately after the catastrophe, nearly 8.8 Bcf per day was shut-in, so an improvement, but a long way to go.

     Natural gas in storage totaled 2,699 Bcf last week, which is 3.7% above the previous five year average.  Obviously, net additions to the working inventory was off, at 36 Bcf, which is almost 50% less than the five year average of 71 Bcf, and about 55% lower than the same period last year.  Last week is the 10th consecutive week that the natural gas storage net injection rate was lower than the five year average.

 

12.23.04 - Crude oil prices dropped over $2.00 per barrel yesterday, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released last weeks inventory numbers, which showed an an unexpected increase in distillate and crude inventories.  Heating oil inventory increased over 600,000 barrels, up to 119.9 million barrels for the week ending December 17th.  Industry experts had expected a decline.  However, warm weather ( which is changing this week) decreased demand and increased inventories.  Crude for February delivery dropped to $43.88 per barrel,  Oil prices had been as a high as $55.67 per barrel in late October, fueled by threats in Nigeria, Iraq, Norway, Venezuela and Russia.  Although distillate stocks increased last week, they still are over 12% below the seasonal average.  Expect things to change next week, as a Canadian Polar Express will drop temperatures down to below zero throughout much of the Midwest over the Christmas weekend.

12.02.04 - Crude oil futures prices dropped down to $3.64 , to $45.49 per barrel yesterday.  The steep drop was fueled by Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports of a higher than antcipated distillate inventory increase, along with gasoline and crude inventory increases.  Distillates are heating oil and other derivatives.  The decrease is the lowest level since mid-September 2004.  When oil futures price drops the stock market has been reacting positively.  The Dow Jones Industrial average jumped over 162 points yesterday, the third largest single day increase this year.  EthanolMarket.com, predicted this crude futures decline back in early November, basically supported by antcipated inventory strength.  NYMEX New York harbor wholesale unleaded regular gasoline closed down to $1.21 per gallon yesterday.  Decreasing wholesale gasoline futures prices fundementally applies pressure to fuel ethanol prices, industrial ethanol prices and beverage ethanol prices.   Current and future tight ethanol market inventory levels seem to be balancing the ethanol market prices.      

11.016.04 - Is the five year Bull Market over....?  The market outlook certainly is bearish.  The EIA recently reported that world crude production was 84.6 million barrels per day in October, a new record.  Prices are currently over 15% off of the record highs set in October.  The increasing over supply will continue to push prices down, possibly below $40 before the correction stops.  The concern over supplies for the winter have decreased, and the Nigerian oil worker strike crisis has subsided.  Prices in October closed over $55 several times.  Yesterdays close was under $47 per barrel.  The futures and options markets confirm that many speculators are "betting" that the fall will continue.  The impact for the ethanol market will be decreasing wholesale unleaded gasoline prices.

11.02.04 - Crude oil futures dropped to their lowest level in the past 30 days, fueled by a continuing sell off, and reduced fears regarding heating oil capacity for the winter.  This is despite continuing fears about a potential oil worker strike in Nigeria, and the most recent tax bill ($10 billion) assesment for Yukos, the Russian oil giant.   Crude settled yesterday at $50.13 per barrel, the lowest since October 4, with a close of $49.41 per barrel.

9.10.04 - Hurricane Ivan will probably cause some disruption with offshore production next week.  It is still too early to accurately project the path, but south Florida is the middle of the tracking band right now.  The storm was a category 5, packing winds up to 160mph.  As it passed over Granada, Ivan was downgraded to a category 4 hurricane.  The Florida Keys are being evacuated.  Gasoline shortages persist with a run at the pump.  Please subscribe to the EthanolMarket.com Newsletter for a full natural gas and crude oil price, production and inventory analysis.

8.10.04 - Oil production was disrupted for the second straight day in the Iraqi city of Basra.  Iraq exports most of its oil from the southern ports.  Meanwhile, September crude closes at nearly $50 per barrel.

06.04.04 - OPEC agreed to increase oil production by 2.0 million barrels per day, and up to 500,000 barrels additional in August.  Industry experts do think this will have a significant impact on US gasoline prices, mainly due to refinery capacity.  The increase lifts OPEC production to 25.5 million barrels per day in July, and up to 26 million barrels per day in August.  Subcribe for a full analysis.

06.02.04 - NYMEX July crude surged to $42.33 per barrel, pushed by the weekend Saudi terror attacks that killed 22 people this past Saturday.  $42.33 beat the previous historical high of $41.24 set on May 24th this year.  The markets are unsettled and there is concern that additional attacks could push crude over $45.00 per barrel.  Natural gas followed, with Henry Hub $6.55MMBTu for July, and the six month strip at $6.80MMBTu.

05.06.04 - Crude futures surged to nearly $39.00, hitting a 13 year year high.

05.06.04 - Natural gas futures jump again.  June over $6.32MMBTu, July nearly $6.40MMBTu and November over $6.54MMBTu.

 

 

05.22.04 - June Henry Hub prices increase to $6.35MMBTu on forecast of warmer weather, and cash prices also increased to over $6.33MMBTu.

05.10.04 - June Henry Hub futures over $6.30MMBTu.  Cash prices over $6.15MMBTu. 

04.22.04 - May Henry Hub natural gas futures increased yesterday up $5.58MMBTu, and June increased to $5.56MMBTu.  Cash prices were slightly up. to the $5.52MMBTu range.

 

 

 

 

 

 






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