USDA Crop Production Forecast
October 28, 2008
Corn Production Down Slightly from September Soybean Production Up Slightly Cotton Production Down 1 Percent Orange Production Down 10 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and eastern Corn Belt as dry conditions during September continued to adversely affect the late developing corn crop. Forecasted yields also decreased in parts of the Delta and in Missouri where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike stressed the crop. Yield prospects improved in the central Corn Belt, central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley as September rains brought much needed moisture to the region. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest 78.2 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from the September forecast and 10 percent below 2007.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from September 1 and down 2.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with September 1, yields are forecast lower or unchanged across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, with the exception of Illinois and Kansas. Yields increased or are unchanged from the September 1 forecast across the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the mid-Atlantic States. As a result of updates that were made to planted acreage in several States based on administrative data, U.S. planted area totals 75.9 million acres. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.4 million acres, up 1 percent from September 1 and up 16 percent from 2007.
All Cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from last month but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and 28 percent below 2007. Producers in the Southeast and Texas are expecting increased yields from last month, while producers in Louisiana and Mississippi expect lower yields due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav. Upland growers in Arkansas and New Mexico are expecting record high yields. American-Pima production is forecast at 451,000 bales, down 2 percent from last month and down 47 percent from last year.
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.19 million tons, down 10 percent from the 2007-08 final utilization but 21 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.63 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 166 million boxes (7.47 million tons), decreased 2 percent from last season's final utilization but is 29 percent higher than the 2006-07 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 88.0 million boxes (3.96 million tons), up 5 percent from last season and 34 percent above the 2006-07 crop. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is down 10 percent from the 2007-08 crop but 23 percent higher than 2006-07. The early, midseason, and navel orange production forecast is 13 percent higher than Valencia production, the largest percentage difference since the 2002-03 season. Average fruit per tree for early-midseason oranges (excluding Navels) is 2 percent higher than last season but 15 percent lower for Valencias. Fruit sizes are average on all orange varieties. Orange production in California is forecast at 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons), down 32 percent from 2007-08 and 4 percent below the 2006-07 crop. Navel oranges are forecast at 32.0 million boxes (1.20 million tons), down 34 percent from last season and down 7 percent from final 2006-07 utilization. The October 1 California Valencia forecast is 12.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), down 25 percent from last season but up 4 percent from the 2006-07 crop. Navel orange fruit were sizing well, and harvest should begin by mid-October. A lower than average navel yield is expected since fruit set per tree is at the lowest level on record. Harvest of the 2007-08 Valencia crop remained underway in many locations. Growers expect a decrease in production for the 2008-09 crop. The Texas October 1 forecast for all oranges is 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons), down 13 percent from 2007-08 and 24 percent lower than the 2006-07 season. Arizona's all orange production is forecast at 250,000 boxes, down 34 percent from last season and 17 percent lower than the 2006-07 crop.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season, at 1.59 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is 5 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2008-09 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on October 10, 2008.
