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USDA Crop Production Forecast
September 11, 2009

 

 

Higher forecast U.S. corn production this month boosts 2009/10 feed grain supplies; however, increased projections for exports and feed and residual use limit the increase in ending stocks.  U.S. corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, 193 million higher than in August, with higher expected yields throughout most of the Corn Belt. 

The national average yield is projected at a record 161.9 bushels per acre.  U.S. corn supplies for 2009/10 are projected 164 million bushels higher, as lower carryin and imports partly offset the higher production forecast. 

Beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for ethanol in 2008/09 based on record July and August production of gasoline blends with ethanol as reported by the Energy Information Agency.  Imports for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels lower with a smaller forecast corn crop in Canada. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected at a record 13.0 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last month and 980 million bushels higher than in 2008/09.  Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on higher expected production. 

Exports are raised 100 million bushels with higher projected imports for Canada and lower production in South America.  Ending stocks are projected 14 million bushels higher.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month.

 

WHEAT:  The 2009/10 U.S. wheat balance sheet is nearly
unchanged this month.  A 20-million-bushel increase in
domestic soft red winter wheat use is offset by the same size
reduction in hard red winter wheat as lower prices relative to
corn encourage soft red winter wheat feeding.  The 2009/10
marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.70 to
$5.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high end of the
range.  Larger world supplies are expected to keep
substantial downward pressure on domestic wheat prices
with seasonal post-harvest gains limited by the need to keep
U.S. wheat competitive in the world market.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 3.9 million
tons higher as a 0.5-million-ton decrease in world beginning
stocks is more than offset by a 4.4-million-ton increase in
foreign production.  Wheat production is raised 2.2 million
tons for EU-27 as higher reported production for France,
Denmark, and a number of other countries, more than offset
reductions for Germany and Poland.  Production is raised 1.0
million tons for Russia on higher reported area.  Production is
raised 0.5 million tons each for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and
0.3 million tons each for Belarus, Paraguay, and South Africa.
 Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina as
continued drought and unseasonable heat limited late
seeding and further reduced yield prospects in the central
and northern growing areas.

Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are projected
slightly lower.  Small import reductions for Malaysia, Mexico,
Sri Lanka, Venezuela, and Vietnam are partly offset by
increases for Algeria and Saudi Arabia.  Exports are lowered
0.5 million tons for Argentina as the smaller expected crop
reduces competition for U.S. wheat, especially in the Western
Hemisphere.  Global consumption is raised 0.9 million tons
mostly reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in Ukraine feeding
and a 0.5-million-ton increase in EU-27 food and industrial
use.  Other changes in projected food use are smaller and
mostly offsetting.  Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are
projected at 186.6 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month
and 64.0 million higher than the 28-year low in 2007/08.

COARSE GRAINS:  Higher forecast U.S. corn production this
month boosts 2009/10 feed grain supplies; however,
increased projections for exports and feed and residual use
limit the increase in ending stocks.  U.S. corn production is
forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, 193 million higher than in
August, with higher expected yields throughout most of the
Corn Belt.  The national average yield is projected at a record
161.9 bushels per acre.  U.S. corn supplies for 2009/10 are
projected 164 million bushels higher, as lower carryin and
imports partly offset the higher production forecast. 
Beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting
higher expected corn use for ethanol in 2008/09 based on
record July and August production of gasoline blends with
ethanol as reported by the Energy Information Agency. 
Imports for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels lower with
a smaller forecast corn crop in Canada. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected at a record 13.0
billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last month and
980 million bushels higher than in 2008/09.  Feed and
residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on higher
expected production.  Exports are raised 100 million bushels
with higher projected imports for Canada and lower
production in South America.  Ending stocks are projected 14
million bushels higher.  The 2009/10 marketing-year average
farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel,
compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month. 

Sorghum supplies for 2009/10 are nearly unchanged this
month with production forecast up 9 million bushels and
beginning stocks projected down 10 million bushels based on
a 10-million-bushel increase in 2008/09 exports.  Projected
2009/10 farm prices for sorghum, barley, and oats are all
lowered this month reflecting larger corn supplies and weaker
corn prices.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are nearly
unchanged with a 4.1-million-ton projected increase for the
United States offset by declines in foreign countries.  Higher
foreign coarse grain beginning stocks and increased foreign
barley and oats production partly offset a 7.2-million-ton
reduction in foreign corn output.  Corn production is lowered
for China, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Kenya, and EU-27. 
China production is lowered 2.5 million tons as yield
prospects were reduced by extended summer dryness in
western portions of the northeastern growing region. 
Production for Brazil and Argentina is lowered 2.0 million tons
and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as area is projected lower
with price incentives encouraging producers to switch to
soybeans.  Corn production is lowered 0.9 million tons each
for Canada and Kenya, and lowered 0.3 million tons for EU-
27.  Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton increase in the Serbia
corn crop.
 
World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected
higher for 2009/10 mostly on higher expected corn trade. 
Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Canada and 1.0
million tons for Kenya, based on smaller expected production
in each country.  Corn exports are lowered 1.0 million tons for
Argentina and 0.5 million tons for EU-27, but more than
offsetting are a 0.3-million-ton increase for Serbia and the
2.5-million-ton increase for the United States.  Global coarse
grain feeding is raised 3.0 million tons mostly on higher corn
feed and residual use in the United States and higher
expected barley feeding in the EU-27.  Global corn ending
stocks are projected 2.4 million tons lower.

RICE:  U.S. rice production in 2009/10 is forecast at 217.9
million cwt, up 6.8 million from last month due to both an
increase in area harvested and yield.  Harvested area is
estimated at 3.1 million acres, up 91,000 acres from the
August estimate.  The average yield is estimated at 7,051
pounds per acre, up 12 pounds per acre.  Long-grain
production is estimated at 153.3 million cwt, up 2.9 million
from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain
production is estimated at 64.7 million cwt, up 3.9 million from
a month ago.  Rice beginning stocks for 2009/10 are raised
7.8 million cwt from last month to 30.4 million based on the
USDA Rice Stocks report released on August 28.  With total
rice imports unchanged, long-grain imports are lowered
slightly, while combined medium- and short-grain imports are
raised.  Domestic and residual use for 2009/10 is lowered 2.5
million cwt to 129.5 million based mostly on a reduction in the
2008/09 estimate.  Exports are projected at 96 million cwt,
down 3 million cwt from last month, but up about 2 million
from the revised 2008/09 estimate.  Long-grain exports are
lowered 4 million cwt to 67.0 million, and combined medium-
and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million to 29.0 million. 
Ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 43.9 million cwt,
up 20.0 million from last month.

The 2009/10 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at
$13.65 to $14.65 per cwt, unchanged from last month and
compares to a revised $16.80 per cwt for 2008/09.  The long-
grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.90
to $13.90 per cwt, up 90 cents per cwt on both ends of the
range compared to a revised $15.00 per cwt for 2008/09. 
The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is
projected at $16.25 to $17.25 per cwt, down $3.25 per cwt on
both ends of the range compared to a revised $23.70 per cwt
for 2008/09.

Projected global 2009/10 rice supply and use estimates are
changed little from a month ago.  Production is projected at
433.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from last month's
estimate, largely due to small declines in Pakistan, Japan,
Taiwan, and North Korea, which are partially offset by
increases in the United States, EU-27, Colombia, and Russia.
 IndiaÂ’s 2009/10 rice crop is projected at 84.0 million tons,
unchanged from last month.  Projected exports are lowered
for the United States and Egypt, while imports are raised for
Vietnam and Egypt, but lowered for Mexico.  Global ending
stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 84.9 million tons, up 0.8
million from last month, but down 4.5 million from 2008/09.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are
projected at 7.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month
mostly due to increased soybean stocks.  Soybean
production is forecast at 3.25 billion bushels, up 46 million
based on higher yields.  Other oilseeds are up due to higher
peanut and cottonseed production.  Soybean crush is raised
20 million bushels due to higher projected soybean meal
exports.  Higher exports from the United States partly offset a
sharp decline in projected soybean meal exports for India as
a reduced soybean crop limits exportable supplies.  Soybean
exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.28 billion
reflecting increased supplies and lower projected prices. 
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels,
up 10 million from last month.

Soybean exports for 2008/09 are projected at a record 1.28
billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting
exceptionally strong shipments in the final weeks of the
marketing year.  The increase is offset with lower residual,
leaving ending stocks unchanged at 110 million bushels. 
Other changes for 2008/09 include increased use of soybean
oil for biodiesel and reduced soybean meal exports.  Season-
ending soybean oil stocks are projected at a record high of
3.1 billion pounds.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is
projected at $8.10 to $10.10 per bushel, down 30 cents on
both ends of the range.  The soybean meal price is projected
at $250 to $310 per short ton, down $10 on both ends.  The
soybean oil price range is unchanged at 32 to 36 cents per
pound.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.8
million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month.  Foreign
production is down 1.2 million tons to 326.9 million tons. 
Global soybean production is projected at a record 243.9
million tons, up 1.9 million as increased production forecasts
for the United States and Brazil are partly offset by reductions
for China, India, and Canada.  Brazil soybean production is
projected at 62 million tons, up 2 million from last month due
to an increased area projection reflecting favorable soybean
prices relative to corn.  China soybean production is reduced
0.4 million tons to 15 million based on lower yields resulting
from untimely dry conditions in northeastern growing areas. 
India soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 9 million
due to reduced harvested area and lower yields.  A late start
to planting resulted in lower-than-expected area sown.  Lower
yields are projected due to a period of dryness in late July
and early August.  Global rapeseed production is almost
unchanged as lower production for Canada is offset by higher
production for EU-27.  The EU-27 crop benefitted from record
yields in France.  Other changes include reduced peanut and
cottonseed production for India and increased sunflowerseed
production for Kazakhstan.

Global oilseed trade for 2009/10 is raised 0.7 million tons to
91.8 million.  Increased soybean imports for China account
for most of the change.  Global oilseed stocks are projected
higher mainly due to higher soybean stocks in China and the
United States, which are only partly offset by lower stocks in
Argentina and India.  China soybean imports for 2008/09 are
raised to a record 39.8 million tons.

SUGAR:  Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is increased
135,000 short tons, raw value, from last month.  Ending
stocks are increased 55,000 tons, sugar production is
decreased 250,000 tons, and imports are increased 330,000
tons.  The decrease in sugar production is based on lower
forecast production of U.S. sugarbeets and Florida
sugarcane.  The increase in 2009/10 imports comes from
Mexico as a result of continued incentives to export to the
U.S. market.  Projected sugar use is unchanged from last
month.  Ending stocks are increased to 844,000 tons, which
is down 35 percent from a year earlier.

Projected 2009/10 Mexico sugar supply is increased 85,000
metric tons, raw value, from last month.  Higher beginning
stocks more than offset lower imports.  Imports are lowered in
line with the portion of the recently announced import quotas
expected to enter the United States in 2009/10.  Exports are
raised 300,000 tons and ending stocks are lowered 215,000
tons.

Estimated 2008/09 Mexico sugar supply is increased 175,000
tons.  Beginning stocks are increased 360,000 tons to reflect
Mexico=s official estimates.  Imports are lowered 185,000 tons
to 215,000 tons, accounting for 100,000 tons of assigned
import quota and 115,000 tons of imports from U.S. refiners. 
Exports are lowered 70,000 tons due to reduced prospects in
the remaining months of the fiscal year.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  Total U.S. meat
production for 2009 is raised as higher pork and broiler
production more than offset lower beef production.  Pork
production is raised due to higher third-quarter slaughter at
significantly higher weights due to favorable summer weather.
 Lower corn prices are expected to encourage increased
weights through the fall.  The broiler production forecast is
also raised based on higher third-quarter slaughter. The beef
production forecast is reduced on lower expected cow
slaughter.  Turkey production is unchanged. 

Meat production forecasts for 2010 are raised from last
month.  Higher feedlot placements in late 2009 and early
2010 result in higher beef production while lower prices for
corn will support increased broiler meat production and
slightly higher hog weights.  USDAÂ’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
report will be released on September 25 and provide
indications of the inventory and sows farrowing moving into
2010.

Red meat export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged
from last month but estimates for the second quarter of 2009
are adjusted to reflect June trade data.  Broiler exports for
2009 are raised reflecting higher-than-expected shipments
during July.

Cattle, hog, broiler, and turkey price forecasts are lowered for
2009.  Weak demand continues to pressure prices.  Hog
prices are forecast to remain under pressure during 2010,
resulting in lower price forecasts.  The 2010 price forecast for
cattle is lowered for the first quarter; broiler and turkey
forecasts are unchanged.

The milk production forecast is raised for 2009 and 2010 as
milk per cow is forecast higher.  Lower feed costs and
plentiful supplies of alfalfa hay into 2010 are expected to
support increased feeding of higher quality rations.  Imports
for 2009 are raised as fat-based product imports have been
stronger than expected; the commercial export forecast for
2009 is raised as cheese shipments have been firm.  Net
removals are adjusted to reflect lower expected sales to CCC
in 2009.  Class III and IV price forecasts are reduced for 2009
due to weaker butter and whey prices.  Cheese and nonfat
dry milk (NDM) prices are unchanged.  The Class III price
forecast for 2010 is unchanged; the Class IV price is reduced
due to lower butter and NDM prices.  The all milk price is
forecast at $12.05 to $12.25 per cwt for 2009 and $14.55 to
$15.55 for 2010.

COTTON:  This monthÂ’s 2009/10 U.S. cotton forecasts show
slightly higher beginning stocks, production, and exports. 
Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales based on the
preliminary Census Bureau survey of stocks on July 31,
2009.  Production is raised 231,000 bales from the August
estimate to 13.4 million bales, with increases mainly in the
Southeast.  Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month.
 Exports are raised slightly, a result of decreased foreign
competition:  developments in India suggest that exportable
supplies there will be lower than previously anticipated. 
Ending stocks are estimated at 5.6 million bales, the same as
last month.  The forecast range for the marketing-year
average price received by producers is 49 to 59 cents per
pound, also the same as last month.

The world 2009/10 cotton forecasts include only minor
changes compared with last month.  Production is reduced
slightly as lower production for India and others is partially
offset by an increase for the United States.  The world
consumption forecast of 112.7 million bales is virtually
unchanged, as slightly higher consumption for India is about
offset by a reduction for China.  World trade also is virtually
unchanged and ending stocks are reduced 2 percent.

 

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of
the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-
6030.  This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees.

APPROVED BY:

        

 

JAMES W. MILLER
ACTING SECRETARY OF
AGRICULTURE