Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 11, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Winter Wheat Production Up 3 Percent From June All Orange Production Up 1 Percent From June Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.86 billion bushels. This is up 3 percent from last month and 23 percent above 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 46.3 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and 4.1 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 40.3 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2008 but up 12 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter, at 1.04 billion bushels, is up 1 percent from a month ago. Soft Red Winter, at 607 million bushels, is up 6 percent from the last forecast. White Winter is up 1 percent from last month and now totals 218 million bushels. Of this total, 23.3 million bushels are Hard White and 194 million bushels are Soft White.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 89.9 million bushels, up 25 percent from 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 34.8 bushels per acre, 0.9 bushel above last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 2.58 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2008 but up 22 percent from last year. Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 507 million bushels, 6 percent above 2007. The expected area to be harvested for grain totals 13.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2008 but up 6 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 36.8 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from 2007. Of the total production, 471 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, up 5 percent from last year. The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 10.2 million tons, up 1 percent from the June 1 forecast and 34 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.63 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 170 million boxes (7.64 million tons), increased 1 percent from the previous forecast and is 32 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida is final at 83.5 million boxes (3.76 million tons), unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 27 percent above last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 86.2 million boxes (3.88 million tons), is up 1 percent from the last forecast and 36 percent higher than 2006-07. The final row count survey indicated fewer than 5 percent of the Valencia orange rows remained to be harvested. If the production forecast for all oranges is realized, it will be the highest since 2003-04, prior to the two hurricane seasons. Orange production in California is forecast at 65.5 million boxes, unchanged from the April 1 forecast but up 42 percent from last season. Navel harvest came to a close at the end of June with growers reporting good to excellent yields and fruit quality. Harvest demand shifted to Valencias and picking for domestic sales was on the rise. In Texas, orange production is forecast at 1.74 million boxes, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and 12 percent lower than the 2006-07 season. Arizona's all orange production is forecast at 380,000 boxes, up 9 percent from the April forecast and 27 percent higher than last season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season is a record high at 1.67 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month but up 1 percent from last season. The early-mid portion is final at 1.55 gallons per box, down slightly from last season's final of 1.56 gallons per box. The Valencia portion decreased from last month's 1.80 gallons per box to 1.79 gallons per box, surpassing last season's record final of 1.77 gallons per box. All yield projections include the assumption that the processing methods this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

June Weather Summary Torrential Midwestern rainfall in late May and early June pushed rivers to record-setting levels in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin. On June 17, the Mississippi River from Keithsburg, Illinois, to Burlington, Iowa, surpassed crest records set in July 1993. Farther downstream, the Mississippi burst through several levees in Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri while climbing to its second- or third-highest level on record, behind July 1993 and April 1973, from Keokuk, Iowa (crested on June 17), to Winfield, Missouri (June 27). Many Mississippi River tributaries also flooded, with the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids, Iowa, surging 19.12 feet above flood stage on June 13 and eclipsing the previous record crest by a stunning 11.12 feet. Record flooding was also observed in several other watersheds, including parts of Indiana's White River basin, Iowa's Iowa River basin, and Wisconsin's Kickapoo and Rock River basins. Heavy rain also pelted the east-central and southeastern Plains, although those areas avoided major flooding. Nevertheless, rain slowed fieldwork, including winter wheat harvesting. In contrast, crop conditions took a turn for the worse across the southern half of the High Plains, in spite of occasional showers, due to hot weather and pre-existing sub-soil moisture shortages. Crops and pastures also deteriorated during June across much of the South. Drought intensified in the western Gulf Coast region, including southern Texas, while showers were insufficient to prevent stress on rain-fed crops in most areas from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Crop areas from Alabama to the Carolinas were especially vulnerable to drought stress due to lingering sub-soil moisture deficiencies following last year's drought. However, much-needed precipitation developed across Florida, where rainfall curbed irrigation demands and reduced the wildfire threat. In California, however, a rash of lightning strikes on June 20-21 ignited more than 800 wildfires. For the remainder of the month, more than two dozen large wildfire complexes (100 acres or more) charred well over 200,000 acres of vegetation and shrouded northern and central California in smoke. Elsewhere in the West, late-month heat replaced cool conditions, especially across the northern half of the region. Although the heat promoted crop growth, topsoil moisture shortages stressed some Northwestern small grains. June Agricultural Summary

The Corn Belt experienced excessive amounts of rainfall during the month, reaching up to 400 percent of normal in areas of southern Wisconsin. Temperatures in most of the Corn Belt averaged 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, except in the eastern and southern areas, where temperatures were normal to 2 degrees above normal. By June 8, eighty-nine percent of the planted corn acreage had emerged, 9 points behind last year and 6 points behind the 5-year average. Emergence was behind normal in all States except Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. By June 15, ninety-five percent of the corn acreage had emerged, 5 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal.

In the Corn Belt, emergence was complete in Michigan and Ohio, but was incomplete elsewhere in the region. By June 22, corn was silking on 2 percent of the acreage, 2 points behind both last year and average. Silking progress was behind normal in the southern Corn Belt, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Texas. By the end of the first week in June, 60 percent of the corn acreage was rated good to excellent. Despite flooding in the eastern Corn Belt, condition ratings dropped only 3 points by June 15, and showed improvement the following week. As of June 29, sixty-one percent of corn acreage was rated good to excellent. The month of June brought excessive moisture to eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Over the northeast corner of Oklahoma and southeast corner of Kansas, 8 to 12 inches of rain fell during the month. Farther west on the southern Great Plains, near normal rainfall amounts were recorded. In the western sorghum-growing areas, dry and warmer than normal weather prevailed. Sorghum planting was 8 points behind the previous year and 9 points behind the 5-year average on June 7. Planting progress was behind the normal pace in most States. Significant delays existed in Illinois and Missouri due to excessive rainfall and standing water. By June 29, ninety-two percent of the crop was planted, 3 points behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Planting was at or behind normal in all States except Texas and planting was complete in the Delta. Heading progress reached 22 percent by June 29, one point behind last year but 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. On June 15, fifty percent of the crop was rated good to excellent. The condition rating remained stable throughout the remainder of the month, declining only 1 percentage point by June 29. In most areas of the northern Great Plains and isolated points west, rains of up to 4 inches were received. In the Great Lakes, excessive rainfall of up to 12 inches fell in southern Wisconsin. With the exception of above average temperatures east of Lake Michigan, the northern tier of the country experienced below average temperatures during the month. In early June, oat heading was 4 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Acreage in all States was developing behind normal except in Pennsylvania and Texas. By month's end, Ohio acreage gained momentum, developing ahead of the average heading pace. Elsewhere, due to late planting and excessive moisture, heading was between 7 and 36 percentage points behind.

Oat acreage rated in good to excellent condition reached 61 percent in early June and increased to 65 percent by month's end. During the first week of June, barley emergence was ahead of the 5-year average. As of the second week of June, acreage heading was 9 points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year average. Twenty-one percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage in Washington by June 15 while heading had just begun in Idaho. On June 22, development delays continued as barley heading reached 11 percent, 17 points behind the previous year and 11 points behind average. By month's end, crop development remained behind average across all barley-producing States. Seventy-one percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of June 29. Throughout the Great Plains, 2 to 4 inches of rain fell in most areas during the month. Heading was 84 percent complete by June 8, behind last year and the 5-year average. Heading was at or behind normal in all States except Michigan. By June 15, heading was complete in many States but was 34 or more points behind in Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota, when compared with normal. Nationwide, 95 percent of the acreage was heading by June 22. Heading remained behind in Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota, despite significant progress during the week. By June 15, sixteen percent of the Nation's acreage was harvested, 5 points ahead of last year's pace but 3 points behind average. Harvest was more than 50 percent complete in Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and on the Southern Plains. By the end of the month, producers had reaped 36 percent of the crop, the same as last year but 12 points behind the 5-year average. Through the Nation's mid-section, where soggy fields remained, harvest progress was behind by month's end in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Nearly half of the winter wheat crop remained in good to excellent condition through the month of June.

Spring wheat growing areas remained cooler than average during the month of June, and scattered rains of up to 4 inches fell in some areas. By June 8, emergence of spring wheat was complete in the Dakotas and nearly complete elsewhere. As of June 15, heading was underway in South Dakota and Washington and had just begun in Idaho. Development was delayed in all States, notably in Washington, as heading lagged the 5-year average by 25 percentage points. By June 29, twenty-eight percent of the spring wheat was at or beyond the heading stage, 25 points behind last year and 19 points behind the 5-year average. More than half of the acreage in South Dakota and Washington was headed or beyond. Crop development in all major spring wheat producing States lagged behind the average. By June 29, seventy-four percent of the spring wheat acreage was rated good to excellent.

Cotton planting was nearly complete by June 15, two points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of the average. Nine percent of the crop had reached the squaring stage by June 8, five points behind both last year and the average. Progress was delayed in most cotton-producing States, but was within 18 points of normal in all States. By June 29, nearly half of the planted acreage reached squaring, 1 point behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average. The most significant delay was in Tennessee, due to lack of soil moisture. Forty-five percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition by month's end. Rainfall amounts up to 12 inches fell throughout the soybean growing area during the month of June with flooding occurring along the Mississippi River. Excessive moisture delayed planting and development. On June 8, planting was 77 percent complete, 15 points behind last year and 12 points behind the 5-year average.

Planting was behind in nearly all soybean-producing States and was significantly behind in Missouri, where excessive rain halted planting in many fields. By month's end, however, progress had nearly caught up with last year's planting progress. Only 4 points behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average, planting was nearly complete. Over half of the soybean crop had emerged by June 8, twenty-four and 18 points behind last year and the 5-year average, respectively. Acreage was emerging behind the usual pace in all States except Louisiana, Michigan, and North Dakota. Progress in Missouri remained furthest behind throughout the month. By month's end, emergence reached 90 percent, nationally, 7 points behind last year and 6 points behind normal. Blooming was evident in the Delta and parts of the Corn Belt by June 22. Blooming was behind the normal pace in all States except Louisiana and Mississippi, largely due to initial planting delays. Condition of the soybean crop was rated 58 percent good to excellent at month's end. Rice emergence was nearly complete by June 8, the same as last year but ahead of the 5-year average. Rice emergence was within 4 percentage points of the average in all States except California.

By June 22, rice heading was underway in Louisiana and Texas and development in all States was at or behind the 5-year average. By month's end, 5 percent of the rice was at or beyond heading and all States remained behind average. On June 8, rice condition was rated 72 percent good to excellent declining to 66 percent good to excellent by June 29. Sunflower producers had planted 68 percent of their acreage by June 8, two points ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Progress lagged last year and the average in all States except North Dakota. As the month progressed, North Dakota planting remained slightly ahead of normal. By month's end, 95 percent of the Nation's crop was seeded, 2 points behind both last year and normal. Peanut producers planted 94 percent of their acreage by June 8, seven points ahead of last year's planting pace and the same as the 5-year average. Peanut pegging had begun by June 15, reaching 3 percent, 1 point ahead of last year, but 3 points behind the 5-year average. The most significant delay was in Florida, where pegging was 9 points behind last year and 15 points behind the 5-year average. Pegging gained momentum by month's end reaching 27 percent, 11 points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of the usual pace. Peanut condition was rated 49 percent good to excellent at month's end.

Crop Comments Oats: Production is forecast at 92.9 million bushels, 1 percent above last year's record low 91.6 million bushels. If realized, this will be the second lowest production on record. Based on conditions as of July 1, the yield is forecast at 64.4 bushels per acre, up 3.5 bushels from 2007. Growers expect to harvest 1.44 million acres for grain or seed, down 4 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the smallest harvested area on record. The oat crop developed at a pace behind both last year and the 5-year average during June. As of June 29, only 62 percent of the oat acreage was headed, 21 points behind last year's pace and 15 points behind the 5-year average. With the exception of Texas, all of the 9 major oat-producing States were behind last year's pace. As of June 29, sixty-five percent of the oat crop in the 9 major producing States was rated as good to excellent, compared with 71 percent last year. Compared with 2007, yields are forecast to be higher or unchanged in all States except California, Iowa, Oregon, and the Dakotas. The largest increases are expected in Idaho, Kansas, and New York, with all three States forecasting yields more than 10 bushels higher than last year.

Barley: Production for 2008 is forecast at 218 million bushels, 3 percent above 2007. Based on conditions as of July 1, the average yield for the U.S. is forecast at 59.8 bushels per acre, down less than 1 bushel from last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain or seed, at 3.64 million acres, is up 4 percent from 2007. In North Dakota, Montana, and Idaho, the top 3 barley-producing States, yields declined by 2, 1, and 2 bushels per acre, respectively. As of June 29, barley acreage was 29 percent headed, 29 points behind last year and 14 points behind the 5-year average. Heading progress in all States trailed both last year and average. Seventy-one percent of the crop was rated good to excellent.

Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.86 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the June 1 forecast and up 23 percent from 2007. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 46.3 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last month and 4.1 bushels above last year. Expected grain area totals 40.3 million acres, up 12 percent from last year but unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2008. Harvest progress in the 18 major producing States was 36 percent complete as of June 29. This was the same as last year's progress but 12 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress was behind normal in all Hard Red Winter States except Oklahoma and Texas. Heavy rains during June in Kansas slowed harvest progress, which stood at 36 percent complete on June 29. In Nebraska, heavy rains and below normal temperatures during June slowed crop development to behind the normal pace. Disease problems were a concern in Nebraska and Kansas because of the continued rainfall. Crop development was also behind last year and the 5-year average in Montana. Yield forecasts are equal to or higher than the previous month in all States in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area except Illinois and Missouri. Elsewhere, harvest progress was close to the normal pace in most States in the southern portion of the growing area. In Missouri, heavy rains during the last part of June caused some lodging and reduced grain quality in the southwestern part of the State. Wheat yield forecasts in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are at or below the previous month. Wheat in Idaho and Oregon was starting to turn color. Crop development was behind the 5-year average in these areas.

Durum Wheat: Production is forecast at 89.9 million bushels, up 25 percent from 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 34.8 bushels per acre, 0.9 bushel above last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 2.58 million acres, up 22 percent from last year. Seeding in Montana began on time due to warm temperatures and limited moisture and was complete by the beginning of June. In North Dakota, Durum wheat seeding began ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Growers in both States finished seeding the crop at or ahead of the average pace. Yield prospects and crop condition ratings are down from the previous year in Montana and North Dakota. In Montana, cooler than normal temperatures and adequate moisture during the beginning of June held crop development behind normal. Crop development is ahead of the normal pace in North Dakota, mostly due to warmer temperatures during the latter part of June. Harvest was nearly complete in California with yields reported to be better than a year ago. The Arizona harvest was 55 percent complete by June 29. Other Spring Wheat: Production is forecast at 507 million bushels, up 6 percent from 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 36.8 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 13.8 million acres, up 6 percent from last year. Planting began earlier than normal in Montana and the Dakotas. Overall, twenty-eight percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage in the six major producing States as of June 29. This was 25 percentage points below last year and 19 points below the 5-year average. Yield prospects are up from the previous year in Minnesota and South Dakota, but down in Montana and North Dakota. In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), drier than normal weather during the spring allowed planting to progress near the normal pace. In Washington and Idaho, cool and wet weather during the last part of June held crop development behind the normal pace. Lentils: Planted area of lentils is estimated at 279,000 acres, up less than 1 percent from the March planting intentions but 8 percent below 2007. Harvested area is estimated at 272,000 acres, down 8 percent from last year. North Dakota's planted area is estimated at 100,000 acres, down 9 percent from 2007. Planting started mid-April, remained ahead of last year's pace, and was essentially completed by mid-May. Montana growers planted 84,000 acres this year, 3 percent fewer than a year ago. During most of April and the beginning of May, Montana experienced light precipitation. From mid-May to mid-June, the State experienced above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. Afterwards, below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures prevailed. Washington's planted area is estimated at 55,000 acres, down 19 percent from 2007. By mid-April, producers were able to begin planting. The temperatures were colder than normal but warmer spring-like weather finally arrived in May. A very unusual snowstorm in mid- June set low temperature records throughout the region, however by the end of the week, temperatures returned to normal. Dry

Edible Peas: Planted area of dry edible peas is estimated at 847,000 acres, down less than 1 percent from last year. Area for harvest, at 807,800 acres, is also down less than 1 percent from a year ago. Area planted in North Dakota, at 510,000 acres, is down 1 percent from 2007. Planting started in mid-April, remained ahead of last year's pace, and was essentially complete by mid-May. Montana dry edible pea growers planted 232,000 acres, down 1 percent from a year ago. During most of April and into May, the State experienced light precipitation. From the middle of May until mid-June, the State had above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. By late June, below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures were common. Washington and Oregon experienced a wet and cool start to the season, delaying planting. By mid-April, producers began planting and most growers were finished by the first week of June. Austrian Winter Peas: Planted area of Austrian winter peas is estimated at 26,500 acres, down 9 percent from 2007. Area harvested is forecast at 8,800 acres, down 20 percent from a year ago. Montana growers planted 19,000 acres, down 5 percent from 2007. Some producers shifted acreage from Austrian winter peas to yellow dry edible peas this season. There has been an increased interest in dry edible peas as a substitute for cattle feed. Many of the growers that planted Austrian winter peas will use most of the crop for hay or forage. Austrian winter pea planted acreage in Idaho and Oregon is down slightly from a year ago.

Tobacco: U.S. all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 503 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the 2007 crop but 13 percent above two years ago. Area harvested, at 221,000 acres is 1 percent below a year ago but up 4 percent from 2006. Yield per acre for flue-cured tobacco is forecast at 2,276 pounds, up 17 pounds from last year and 178 pounds above the 2006 yield. Forecasted yields for flue-cured tobacco in Georgia and Virginia increased from last year while the average yield is expected to decrease in North Carolina. Yield per acre is expected to remain unchanged from a year ago in South Carolina. In North Carolina, the leading flue-cured tobacco State, production is forecasted at 378 million pounds, up less than 1 percent from the 2007 crop. North Carolina accounts for 75 percent of the total U.S. flue-cured tobacco production. Area harvested, at 168,000 acres is 1 percent above last year. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,250 pounds per acre, down 20 pounds from 2007. Drought conditions were prevalent across the State with soil moisture rated 75 percent very short to short. However, the majority of the crop was rated in fair to good condition. Flue-cured tobacco production in South Carolina is forecast at 45.0 million pounds, down 2 percent from a year ago. Area harvested, at 20,000 acres, is 2 percent below 2007. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,250 pounds, unchanged from last year. The majority of the crop was rated in fair condition but low soil moisture affected plant growth. In Virginia, flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 42.5 million pounds, up 4 percent from the 2007 crop. Area harvested, at 17,000 acres, is 6 percent below a year ago. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,500 pounds, 220 pounds above last year. Dry conditions since transplanting have stressed Virginia's tobacco crop. Growers began irrigating at the end of June, with optimism for a good crop. The crop was rated in fair to good condition. Flue-cured tobacco production in Georgia is forecast at 37.6 million pounds, down 5 percent from a year ago. Area harvested at 16,000 acres, is 14 percent below 2007. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,350 pounds, 200 above last year. While dry conditions prevailed and soil moisture was short, the presence of tomato spotted wilt virus appeared to be relatively low. With disease pressure down, growers were expecting one of the best crops in years.

All Potatoes: Potato growers across the United States planted an estimated 1.06 million acres of potatoes in all four seasons this year, down 8 percent from last year and 7 percent below 2006. Area for harvest, forecasted at 1.04 million acres, is down 8 percent from 2007 and 7 percent below 2006. Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes for 2008 is estimated at 929,100 acres, down 8 percent from last year and 7 percent below 2006. Harvested area is forecast at 916,200 acres, also down 8 percent from 2007 and 7 percent below 2006. The decrease in planted acreage can partly be attributed to higher prices from competing crops, which influenced growers to plant crops other than potatoes. Idaho growers decreased planted acreage 14 percent from last year. Growers of potatoes for fresh sales were encouraged to decrease their 2008 planted acres by 20 percent from their 2004 base acres. The July 6 crop progress in Idaho was ahead of the 5-year average and crop conditions were 86 percent good to excellent. Washington producers planted 6 percent fewer acres than a year ago. Cool, wet conditions delayed planting in the northwest section of the State with Skagit County only having 80 percent of the crop planted by the end of June. Oregon growers decreased acreage 3 percent from last year and the crop was 1 to 2 weeks behind normal. Planted acres in Colorado dropped 4 percent. A storm at the end of June caused wind and hail damage to some of the acres. Farmers were expecting the crop to recover by harvest time, but with reduced yields. Montana's fall potato acres are down 4 percent and Nevada's acres decreased 14 percent. California producers increased acreage by 10 percent and farmers in New Mexico planted 15 percent more acres. North Dakota's planted acreage declined 14 percent from last year. As of July 6, crop condition was rated 73 percent good to excellent, comparable to last year at the same time. When compared to 2007, planted acres decreased 4 percent in Minnesota, went up 5 percent in Michigan, and remained unchanged in Wisconsin. Ohio producers reduced acres 22 percent from a year ago and growers in Nebraska decreased acreage 5 percent from last year. Maine's planted area is down 4 percent from 2007. As of July 6, crop specialists in the State rated the crop in good to excellent condition due to frequent rains, warm days, and cool nights. Growers in New York planted 5 percent fewer acres than in 2007, acreage in Pennsylvania increased 5 percent, and Massachusetts' planted acres decreased 4 percent. Rhode Island's planted area is estimated at 500 acres, 100 acres below last year. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 14.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from 2007. Harvested area is estimated at 45,500 acres, 11 percent below last year. Average yield is forecast at 321 cwt per acre, down 3 cwt from 2007. Growers in Colorado and Virginia are expecting an increase in this year's crop while all other States are forecasting decreases from last year. Production in Colorado is expected to be up 47 percent from 2007 and Virginia is expecting a 16 percent increase in production from last year. Missouri forecasted a 53 percent decrease in production followed by Illinois and New Jersey, at 32 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Maryland is expecting production to be down 18 percent from 2007; Delaware's production is expected to decrease by 12 percent; and production in Kansas is down 11 percent from last year. In California, summer potato production is down 11 percent from 2007 and Texas expects to see a decrease of 9 percent from last year. In Texas, most growers experienced persistent hot, dry conditions with some reporting that harvest was complete. California growers dealt with drier than normal conditions, but most reported that crop quality was good overall with some expecting a late harvest. In Illinois and Missouri, cooler, wetter conditions negatively impacted yields. In Virginia, farmers experienced nearly ideal growing conditions with timely rains during the spring and hot weather in June. Peaches: The U.S. peach production forecast is 1.10 million tons, down 3 percent from 2007 but 9 percent above the 2006 crop. Nineteen of the 28 Freestone peach estimating States expect increases in production from last year, while eight States decreased their production from the previous season, and one State showed no change. Freestone production, at 717,150 tons, is up 15 percent from last season

The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 380,000 tons, equal to the June 1 forecast but 24 percent below the 2007 crop. California experienced an adequate number of chilling hours, thus benefitting the Clingstone crop. Weather during the bloom period was also favorable, however, unusually cold temperatures on April 19 and 20 resulted in significant frost damage. The largest impact was reported in the northern growing areas, with some growers reporting 100 percent damage. There were also a large number of growers reporting losses in the Modesto area. However, fruit in the southern growing areas was not affected. The 2008 peach harvest began in Kingsburg on June 18, four days later than last year. Quality was reported to be very good. The California Freestone crop is forecast at 430,000 tons, equal to the June 1 forecast but 4 percent below the 2007 crop. Weather during the bloom period was very accommodating, although cooler spring temperatures slowed maturity. The crop was reported to be of excellent quality, with good sizes. Harvest continued during June with July Flame, Sierra Rich, Ice Princess, Rich Lady, and Galaxy varieties being picked. In 2007, devastating cold temperatures in early April damaged peach orchards in the Atlantic States from New York to Georgia with production in the southeastern States affected the most. Conditions have been more conducive to peach production thus far this season. The South Carolina peach crop, at 55,000 tons, is down 15 percent from the June 1 forecast but 42,500 tons above 2007. Conditions declined from the June 1 forecast with scattered hailstorms and drought-like conditions reported. Many peach producers reported a good crop, but some sustained damage from localized hailstorms. However, peach tree fruit set remained rather heavy and the potential for a good crop remained. Georgia's peach crop is forecast at 35,000 tons, equal to the June 1 forecast but 169 percent above the frost-damaged 2007 crop. Several days of freezing temperatures in late March and the first half of April damaged the crop. Losses were variable by varieties and orchard locations, but damage occurred mostly on early varieties across the State. Many areas, however, escaped the freeze and were expecting near normal production. Pennsylvania and New Jersey showed production increases from a year ago at 19 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Fruit set and overall conditions were reported as good in both States. Favorable conditions were reported throughout the southeastern, central, and mid-Atlantic States with production increases expected. Freezing temperatures in Michigan and hail damage in New York lowered production expectations by 22 percent and 10 percent, respectively. In Washington and Oregon, a cold, wet spring lowered production expectations. Washington's production is expected to decrease 8 percent from a year ago, while Oregon producers are expecting a 27 percent decline.

California Grapes: California=s all grape production is forecast at 6.05 million tons, down 3 percent from a year ago. Wine type grapes account for 53 percent of California=s total production, raisin type grapes account for 34 percent, while the remaining 13 percent are table type grapes. Growers expected an average crop this year despite frost damage from unusually cold temperatures in mid-April. Lack of water was also a concern for growers in southern San Joaquin Valley. Wine type grape production is forecast at 3.20 million tons, down 3 percent from the 2007 crop. Bunch counts in the San Joaquin Valley were down slightly from 2007. Decreases were seen in Muscat of Alexandria, Barbera, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, and Rubired, while the most significant bunch count increases were in Chenin Blanc and Viognier. Raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.05 million tons, down 4 percent from last year. Bunch counts of Thompson Seedless grapes in the Central and South San Joaquin Valley were up from last year. Berry size will be the determining factor in this year's total crop production, however crop development was behind schedule. Table type grape production is expected to be 800,000 tons, up 1 percent from last year. Bunch counts were good for table grapes. However, with crop development behind schedule berry size was unknown. Overall, growers expected a good to average crop. Apricots: The final forecast for the 2008 apricot crop is 86,840 tons, down 2 percent from the 2007 crop but up 95 percent from 2006. California's 2008 apricot production, which represents 94 percent of the total 2008 U.S. apricot production, is projected to be 82,000 tons, down 6 percent from the June forecast but up 1 percent from 2007. Growers experienced near perfect weather during the bloom period. Frost damage in late April ruined some orchards, however, most were spared. Harvest began in mid-May and continued into early July. Fruit was expected to be high quality but small in size. Washington's 2008 apricot production is forecast at 4,500 tons, down 38 percent from 2007 and 13 percent below 2006. Low spring temperatures, along with a devastating mid-April frost, led to heavy bloom losses. Poor pollination during the bloom further exacerbated the reduction in yield. The 2008 production for Utah is 340 tons, up 31 percent from 2007 and up 21 percent from 2006. While frost from a mid-April freeze damaged trees in the State, most of the orchards received optimal weather during growth.

Almonds: California's 2008 almond production is forecast at a record 1.50 billion pounds, shelled basis, up 3 percent from the May forecast and 8 percent above last year's crop. Bearing acreage, at 660,000 acres, increased 7 percent from 2007. The average yield is forecast at a record 2,270 pounds per acre, up 10 pounds per acre from last year's record high yield of 2,260 pounds. Almond set was very strong. This year's bloom arrived three weeks later than normal, but was nearly perfect. It progressed quickly, lasting only 10 days as opposed to the average three weeks. Overlapping bloom between varieties was outstanding, resulting in good cross- pollination, and there was an adequate supply of bees to pollinate the crop. Almond tree limbs in many locations were bowing under the weight of the heavy crop Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.79 million pounds for May 2008, up 7 percent from April and 18 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for May is estimated at 2,020 acres, up slightly from April but 5 percent lower than May 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,425 acres, relatively unchanged from the previous month but 8 percent higher than May 2007. Warm, sunny weather continued into May. Some growers prepared fields for planting, however, schedules were delayed due to reduced seed availability.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.57 million tons, up 1 percent from the June 1 forecast but 4 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 26.6 million boxes (1.13 million tons), virtually unchanged from the June forecast but 2 percent below last season. The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), unchanged from June's forecast but 3 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.6 million boxes (748,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the June forecast but 2 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. Grapefruit harvest in Florida was virtually complete with 97 percent of the rows being harvested this season. In Texas, grapefruit production is forecast at 6.10 million boxes (244,000 tons), down 5 percent from the April 1 forecast and 14 percent lower than last season. Grapefruit harvest was complete in Texas. California's grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes, up 12 percent from the previous forecast and 2 percent higher than the 2006-07 season. Harvest of Star Ruby grapefruit was half over and expected to continue throughout July. In Arizona, grapefruit production is forecast at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), down 33 percent from the April 1 forecast but unchanged from last season. Many grapefruit were left unharvested due to low demand.

Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 490,000 tons, up 5 percent from the June forecast and 36 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 5.50 million boxes (261,000 tons), unchanged from June's forecast but 20 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. The later maturing Honey tangerine forecast finished at 2.90 million boxes, which equaled the record crop of 2003-04. California's tangerine forecast is 5.70 million boxes (214,000 tons), up 12 percent from April and 63 percent higher than last season. This forecast is the highest on record. Tangerine harvest was complete with most growers rebounding from the devastating freeze that occurred in January 2007. Arizona's tangerine forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons) is unchanged from the April forecast and 33 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Lemons: The forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is 722,000 tons, up 3 percent from the April 1 forecast but down 10 percent from 2006-07. California's forecast is 17.5 million boxes (665,000 tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast but 5 percent lower than last season. Harvest continued in the south coastal region with some growers delaying harvest to increase fruit size. The forecast for Arizona is 1.50 million boxes (57,000 tons), unchanged from April's forecast but 40 percent lower than last season.

Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 20 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Tangelo harvest was complete. Florida Citrus: Temperatures throughout the month followed seasonal patterns, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s with some days reaching into the mid 90s. Afternoon and evening rainfall was prevalent in all areas, benefitting fruit growth and trees with new foliage. During a few of the wettest periods, reported rainfall amounts reached up to 2 inches in a single day. The new fruit for next season ranged from golf ball size on oranges up to baseball size on grapefruit, typical for this time of year. Production activities included spraying, mowing, hedging and topping, brush removal, and resetting. Many growers pushed trees with greening, while some applied preventive treatments. Some growers combined efforts and applied psyllid control aerially. Weekly utilization of oranges held up at over three million boxes up to the last week of the month. Grapefruit harvest was relatively over at the beginning of the month, with small amounts of colored grapefruit trickling in each week. Overall the crop looked good, as growers planned for and assessed next season's crop. Arizona Citrus: The citrus season came to a close at the end of June. Four of the five packers in the State had completed operations by April. One packer continued operations through mid-June. Fewer navels and grapefruit were packed than anticipated, while Valencia packing increased. Texas Citrus: Most producers reported that the Citrus crop was smaller than expected. Grapefruit was doing well overall. Some producers reported damage from the December freeze.

California Citrus: Citrus growers worked to control diseases, insects, and weeds. Groves were irrigated and foliar nutrients were applied. Some growers treated groves for thrips. Fruit drop occurred as a result of the recent high temperatures. Some citrus growers planted new trees. Navel orange harvest was winding down and quality was good, though more fruit was destined for the processing market. Valencia oranges, lemons, and grapefruit were also harvested. California Noncitrus Fruits and

Nuts: Grape vines formed bunches while irrigation in orchards and vineyards continued due to the dry conditions. Grape producers managed irrigation closely given the water shortage. Sulfur dusting and thinning of bunches on table grapes was ongoing. Stone fruit and pomegranate growers irrigated and sprayed to control weeds, diseases, and insects. Thinning of stone fruit was still taking place in some areas. The stone fruits harvested during June included cherries, apricots, apriums, peaches, plums, pluots, Flavorella plumcots, and nectarines. Spring blackberry, blueberry, boysenberry, raspberry, and strawberry harvests continued. Pomegranate and persimmon bloom was winding down. Figs were harvested in Merced County. Olive bloom was ending and trees were forming fruit. Olive growers evaluated fruit set. Irrigation in nut groves continued due to dry conditions and walnuts were treated for codling moth. Limb breakage was observed on some walnut trees due to the heavy set. Almonds also showed a heavy set. Almonds were sprayed for hull split and treated for mites.

Reliability of July 1 Crop Production Forecasts Wheat Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 21 and July 7 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 69 percent of the 2007 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Approximately 10,600 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the July 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 23 million bushels, ranging from 1 million to 65 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 orange production forecast is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Differences between the July 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 111,000 tons, ranging from 18,000 tons to 370,000 tons. The July 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. The difference does not imply that the July 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

 

 

 

This report was approved on July 11, 2008. Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House