USDA - World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates
WASDE - 471 June 10, 2009
NOTE: Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern
Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern
Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat area,
yield, and production. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS
Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used
to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2009/10 are lowered this
month reflecting a 10-million-bushel reduction in forecast
winter wheat production. Soft red winter wheat, forecast
down 7 million bushels, accounts for most of the reduction,
however, hard red winter wheat production is also forecast 4
million bushels lower. Partly offsetting is a small increase in
white winter wheat. Feed and residual use is lowered 20
million bushels based on higher projected prices which are
expected to limit the competitiveness of all but the lowest
quality wheat in feed rations. Ending stocks are projected 10
million bushels higher as reduced use more than offsets the
decrease in production. The 2009/10 marketing-year
average farm price is projected at $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel,
up 20 cents on both ends of the range as higher feed grain
and soybean prices support domestic wheat values.
Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected lower this
month as reduced production more than offsets higher
beginning stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 1.3 million
tons mostly reflecting lower expected 2008/09 domestic
consumption for Russia.
World wheat production for 2009/10 is lowered 1.6 million
tons with reductions for EU-27, Canada, and Ukraine only
partly offset by increases for Russia, China, Afghanistan,
Azerbaijan, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. EU-27 production is
lowered 2.3 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected
yields in Hungary, Romania, and Spain where continued
dryness has reduced crop prospects. Increases for France
and Denmark are partly offsetting. Production for Canada is
lowered 1.0 million tons on dryness in Alberta and western
Saskatchewan and on unseasonably cool temperatures that
have delayed spring wheat seeding and development across
the Prairie Provinces. Ukraine production is reduced 1.0
million tons on persistent April and May dryness in the
countryÂ’s central growing areas. Russia production is raised
1.0 million tons on higher area and improved prospects for
spring wheat yields with abundant early season moisture in
the northern and eastern growing areas. Production for
China is raised 0.5 million tons on higher area. Production
increases for North Africa and Syria reflect higher expected
yields.
Global wheat imports, exports, and consumption for 2009/10
are all projected lower this month. Imports are lowered for
Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and Bangladesh. Exports are
lowered for Ukraine, with increases for Russia and Turkey
partly offsetting. Global consumption is projected 1.0 million
tons lower with reduced wheat feeding in Ukraine and the
United States, and lower food use in Russia more than
offsetting higher feeding. Global ending stocks are projected
at 182.6 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grains supplies for 2009/10
are projected lower with reduced prospects for corn yields
and production. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected at
11.9 billion bushels, down 155 million from last monthÂ’s
projection. The national average yield is projected at 153.4
bushels per acre, 2 bushels lower as continued planting
delays through late May reduce yield prospects, especially for
the eastern Corn Belt. Early planting in the western Corn Belt
and improved crop conditions from last year at this time, as
reported in the June 8 Crop Progress, are expected to partly
offset the poor start to this yearÂ’s crop in other parts of the
country. Corn supplies are projected at 13.6 million bushels,
down 190 million bushels from 2008/09.
Projected feed and residual use for 2009/10 is reduced 100
million bushels this month based on lower projections for red
meat and poultry production and lower expected residual use
with the lower corn yield. Total use, projected at 12.5 billion
bushels, is expected to exceed production by 525 million
bushels drawing down stocks sharply year-to-year. Ending
stocks are projected at 1.1 billion bushels, down 55 million
from last month and 510 million below the 2008/09 projection.
The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected
at $3.90 to $4.70 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the
range. This compares with $4.10 to $4.30 per bushel for
2008/09. Projected 2009/10 farm prices for sorghum, barley,
and oats are also raised this month.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 8.1
million tons lower this month with lower U.S. corn production
accounting for nearly half the reduction. Global coarse grain
beginning stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons with a 0.5-
million-ton reduction for 2008/09 Brazil corn production and
reduced corn carryin for Russia and Ukraine due to higher
2008/09 exports. Global corn production is lowered 3.7
million tons with the 3.9-million-ton reduction for the United
States only partly offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for
Ukraine on higher reported area. Corn production is also
lowered 0.4 million tons for EU-27 and 0.3 million tons for
Croatia. World barley production is lowered 3.4 million tons
mostly reflecting a 3.2-million ton reduction for EU-27. Barley
production is also lowered 0.7 million tons for Canada and
0.3 million tons for Argentina with mostly offsetting increases
of 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, for
Russia and Morocco.
World coarse grain imports and exports are projected higher
on 0.4-million-ton increases for both corn imports and
exports. Global corn feeding is lowered 2.1 million tons
reflecting the 2.5-million-ton U.S. reduction, which is partly
offset by small increases for Indonesia, Taiwan, and Ukraine.
World coarse grain ending stocks are projected 6.3 million
tons lower with a 3.5-million-ton reduction for barley and a
2.7-million-ton reduction for corn. Most of the reduction in
barley stocks is for EU-27, down 3.2 million tons. Half of the
reduction in global corn stocks is the result of changes for the
United States. Global corn ending stocks are projected at
125.5 million tons, down 13.1 million from the 2008/09
projection.
RICE: U.S. rice supplies in 2009/10 are lowered 3.0 million
cwt from a month ago as production is lowered 4.0 million
and imports raised 1.0 million. U.S. rice production in
2009/10 is projected at 220.0 million cwt, nearly 2 percent
below last month, but 8 percent above 2008/09. Area
harvested is unchanged at 3.16 million acres. However,
average rice yield is projected at 6,955 pounds per acre,
down 127 pounds per acre or about 2 percent from last
month. Projected yield in June is based on trend yields by
rice class for the period 1990 to 2008, adjusted downward for
late planting and slow development in the Delta region
caused by heavy rains and excessively wet field conditions in
May. Imports for 2009/10 are projected at 22.0 million cwt,
up 1.0 million cwt from last month and up 2 million from
revised 2008/09. Total rice use for 2009/10 is unchanged
from last month with domestic and residual and exports
unchanged from a month ago. However, the rough rice
export projection is lowered 2.0 million cwt and entirely offset
by an increase in the combined milled- and brown-export
forecast. Ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 36.2
million cwt, down 8 percent from a month ago, but up 56
percent from 2008/09.
U.S. imports in 2008/09 are raised 1.0 million cwt, all in long-
grain, due to the larger-than-expected pace of imports
principally from Thailand. Although the domestic and residual
projection for 2008/09 is unchanged at 135.0 million cwt, rice
by-class projections are changed with long-grain rice
domestic use raised 1.0 million and combined medium- and
short-grain lowered by an equal amount. Exports for 2008/09
are projected at 94.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million, all in
combined medium- and short-grain rice. Ending stocks for
2008/09 are unchanged at 23.2 million cwt.
The rice season-average price projections for 2009/10 are
unchanged. However, changes are made to 2008/09 by-class
rice price projections, with the price range for long-grain rice
lowered 5 cents per cwt on each end to $14.55 to $15.05 per
cwt; and the range for combined medium- and short-grain
rice raised 20 cents per cwt on each end to $21.10 to $21.60
per cwt. The 2008/09 all rice price estimate is unchanged
from a month ago at $15.75 to $16.25 per cwt.
Global 2009/10 rice supply and use is nearly unchanged from
a month ago. Global production is raised about 0.4 million
tons, primarily due to an increase for the EU-27 and Brazil,
which is partially offset by reductions for the United States,
Iraq, and Taiwan. The change in Brazil is based largely on
an increase in the 2008/09 crop. The 2009/10 Brazil crop will
not be harvested until March – May 2010. Ending stocks for
2009/10 are projected at 95.0 million tons, up 0.3 million from
last month, and up 5.1 million or about 6 percent from
2008/09.
OILSEEDS: This monthÂ’s U.S. oilseed supply and use
projections for 2009/10 include reductions in beginning and
ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher export
and crush projections for 2008/09. Soybean exports for
2008/09 are raised to a record 1.25 billion bushels reflecting
record sales and increased projected imports for China and
reduced soybean exports from Argentina. Projected soybean
exports for Argentina for 2008/09 are reduced 2 million tons
to 5.4 million, the lowest in 9 years. U.S. soybean crush is
raised mainly due to higher projected soybean meal exports.
Soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 110
million bushels, down 20 million from last month. Ending
stocks for 2009/10 are also reduced 20 million bushels to 210
million. Other changes this month include reduced soybean
oil used for biodiesel production for 2008/09 and increased
soybean oil exports for both 2008/09 and 2009/10. Higher
soybean oil exports reflect lower projected exports from Brazil
due to increased biodiesel production and use.
Soybean, meal, and oil prices are all raised this month. The
U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/10 is projected
at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, up 55 cents on both ends of
the range. Soybean meal prices for 2009/10 are projected at
$275 to $335 per short ton, up 15 dollars on both ends of the
range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 33 to 37 cents per
pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 421.4
million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to
lower rapeseed production. EU-27 rapeseed production is
reduced 0.6 million tons to 18.5 million mainly due to lower
yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in
eastern growing areas. Increased China rapeseed
production partly offsets the smaller EU-27 crop. Other
changes include reduced sunflowerseed production for EU-
27 and reduced soybean production for Ukraine. ArgentinaÂ’s
2008/09 soybean production is reduced 2 million tons to 32
million reflecting low yields reported as harvest nears
completion.
SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2009/10
is decreased 40,000 short tons, raw value, from last month
based on lower production more than offsetting higher carryin
stocks. Reduced area for sugarcane in Hawaii reduces sugar
production 50,000 tons based on processor reports. Sugar
deliveries are reduced 210,000 tons from last month based
on prospects for tight supplies and rising prices. Ending
stocks increased 170,000 tons.
For 2008/09, Hawaii cane sugar production is reduced
25,000 tons based on processor reports, and imports from
Mexico are increased 200,000 tons due to the recent strong
pace. Sugar deliveries are increased 165,000 tons and
ending stocks increase 10,000 tons.
Projected 2009/10 sugar supply in Mexico is decreased
135,000 metric tons, raw value, from last month. Lower
carryin stocks more than offset higher imports. Domestic use
is lowered 110,000 tons. Ending stocks decrease 20,000
tons. For 2008/09, production is lowered and use is raised
based on pace-to-date estimates. Ending stocks are
decreased 470,000 tons.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat
production for 2009 and 2010 is reduced from last month as
higher forecast feed prices are expected to reduce prospects
in the pork and broiler sectors. Beef production is forecast
lower in 2009 due to the slower pace of fed-cattle slaughter to
date in the second quarter and lighter average carcass
weights. The pork production forecast is raised for 2009 as
higher second quarter slaughter weights boost production
and more than offset a reduced second half forecast that is
lower due to reduced imports of hogs from Canada. Pork
production in 2010 is lowered as higher feed prices and
weaker forecast hog prices are expected to dampen growth
in animal weights and reduce incentives to increase
production. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be
released on June 26, will provide an indication of producer
farrowing intentions through the end of 2009. Pork
production is also reduced due to a reduced forecast of
imports of hogs from Canada during 2010. The broiler
production forecasts for both 2009 and 2010 are lowered
from last month as production is dampened by higher feed
prices. Turkey production forecasts are raised slightly in the
second quarter of 2009. Egg production in 2009 is reduced.
Export forecasts are raised due to firm shipments of beef,
pork, and broilers during the first quarter. Pork exports are
raised slightly for 2010.
Price forecasts for 2009 are lowered for cattle and hogs but
are raised for broilers. Generally weak red meat demand is
expected to pressure livestock prices. The hog price forecast
is also lowered for 2010. Broiler prices for both 2009 and
2010 are raised from last month as lower production is
expected to support prices. Turkey and egg price forecasts
are unchanged.
The milk production forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced
as higher feed prices further weaken producer returns and
sharpen the expected contraction in cow numbers. Growth in
milk per cow is also slowed due to higher feed costs.
Commercial exports, primarily on a skim-solids basis, are
forecast higher in 2009 and 2010 on tighter global dairy
product supplies and a weaker U.S. dollar. CCC removals
are adjusted to reflect exports under the Dairy Export
Incentive Program (DEIP). Most product prices are forecast
higher in the face of tighter supplies, but cheese prices are
forecast lower for 2009. The Class III price is unchanged for
2009 but raised for 2010 while Class IV prices are forecast
higher for 2009 and 2010. The all milk price is forecast at
$11.95 to $12.35 per cwt for 2009 and $15.10 to $16.10 for
2010.
COTTON: This monthÂ’s U.S. 2009/10 cotton forecasts show
lower beginning stocks offset by lower exports, leaving
ending stocks unchanged from last month. The production
estimate and domestic mill use also are unchanged. Exports
are reduced 200,000 bales to 10.8 million, due mainly to
lower import demand by China, combined with greater
competition from Uzbekistan. The forecast range for the
marketing year average price received by producers is 48 to
60 cents per pound, the same as last month.
World ending stocks in 2009/10 are reduced by 1.2 million
bales, mainly reflecting lower beginning stocks. Total
production, consumption, and trade are revised marginally.
Consumption and imports are lowered for China, as
government policies are likely to continue to support prices by
channeling demand to government-held stocks; at the same
time, imports are raised for Pakistan due to recent indications
of stronger consumption.
For 2008/09, U.S. exports are raised 200,000 bales to 12.7
million, based on recent activity, and ending stocks are
reduced accordingly. The forecast marketing-year average
price received by producers is 49 cents per pound, compared
with a range of 48 to 50 cents last month. The world 2008/09
estimates show lower production and higher consumption,
resulting in lower ending stocks. Production is lowered in
India and Brazil, while consumption is raised in Pakistan.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the
Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald
A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED
BY:
JOSEPH W. GLAUBER
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
