USDA - World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supply, use, and stocks projections for 2008/09 are unchanged this month. The season-average price received by producers is projected at $6.70 to $6.90 per bushel, up 20 cents on the bottom end of the range reflecting continued strength in reported farm prices.
Global 2008/09 wheat production is nearly unchanged from last month at 682.8 million tons. Reductions for Argentina and EU-27 are nearly offset by increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Production is lowered 1.1 million tons for Argentina as drought affected yields have proven even lower than previously thought. EU-27 output is reduced 0.2 million tons on official government revisions for the United Kingdom and Hungary. Russia and Ukraine production are raised 0.7 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively, on the latest government indications. Production is raised 0.2 million tons for Australia on higher yields. Australia production is also raised 0.8 million tons for 2007/08 in line with upward government revisions to area and yields.
World wheat imports for 2008/09 are nearly unchanged this month. Imports are lowered 1.0 million tons for Brazil and reduced 0.2 million tons each for Morocco, Nigeria, and Vietnam. Reductions of 0.1 million tons each are projected for Taiwan and Venezuela. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for Iran, 0.3 million tons for Pakistan, 0.2 million tons each for Syria and Turkey, and 0.1 million tons for Israel. Import changes mostly reflect the pace of shipments to date and indications of purchasing by these countries. Exports are lowered 0.8 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for China, and 0.4 million tons for Brazil. These reductions are partly offset by increases of 0.5 million tons each for Turkey and Ukraine and 0.2 million tons each for India and Paraguay.
World wheat consumption is lowered 1.5 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected food use in Argentina, Morocco, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Vietnam. The reduction in Argentina reflects lower available supplies with reduced production. Reductions for the other countries reflect lower expected imports. World wheat feed and residual use is down slightly this month with a 2.0-million-ton reduction for EU-27 mostly offset by increases of 0.7 million tons for Russia, 0.4 million tons each for Syria and Ukraine, 0.3 million tons for Canada, and 0.1 million tons for Israel. Increased barley feeding in EU-27 offsets the reduction in wheat. Higher wheat production in Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase handling and storage losses which are accounted for as higher feed and residual use. Global ending stocks are increased 1.6 million tons with increases for EU-27, Iran, Australia, China, and Pakistan partly offset by reductions for Turkey, Ukraine, Brazil, Canada, Syria, Argentina, and India.
COARSE GRAINS: There are no changes this month to the U.S. corn balance sheet. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is projected 40 million bushels higher based on indications of increased sorghum use by ethanol plants in the Southern and Central Plains. Sorghum prices are well below those for corn in these areas and supplies are plentiful with this years slower export pace.
Ethanol blender and producer margins have recently improved and weekly production of gasoline blends with ethanol has risen.
Sorghum feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels leaving projected ending stocks down 30 million bushels. Barley food, seed, and industrial use is raised 10 million bushels on strong exports of barley malt. Barley feed and residual use is lowered an offsetting amount.
The projected season-average farm price range for corn is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.15 per bushel. The price range for sorghum is narrowed 15 cents on each end to $3.05 to $3.35 per bushel. The oats farm price is raised 10 cents on each end of the range to $3.00 to $3.20 per bushel based on reported prices to date.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2008/09 are lowered 0.9 million tons this month with reductions in corn production for South America and India only partly offset by increases for FSU-12 coarse grains, increases for Australia barley and sorghum, and higher barley beginning stocks in Australia based on revisions to 2007/08 production.
World corn production for 2008/09 is lowered 4.6 million tons. Argentina production is lowered 3.0 million tons as continued drought and heat during late January further reduced prospects for yields and harvested area in key central growing areas. Brazil production is lowered 2.0 million tons reflecting a return to dryness in late January that limited soil moisture during grain fill in drought-affected southern growing areas.
Corn production is also lowered 0.8 million tons in adjacent Paraguay which experienced similar weather problems this season. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for India as lower yields more than offset an increase in harvested area. Production is lowered 0.2 million tons for Russia, but increased 1.4 million tons for Ukraine on the latest government indications.
